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Rebar: The rebar market experienced narrow fluctuations yesterday. The rebar 2701 contract closed at 3,169 yuan per tonne, down 8 yuan from the previous trading day's settlement, a decline of 0.25%, with open interest increasing by 26,500 lots. Spot prices remained broadly stable while trading volumes declined. Qian'an ordinary billet prices in Tangshan held steady at 3,040 yuan per tonne, and Zhongtian rebar prices in the Hangzhou market remained flat at 3,170 yuan per tonne. National construction material transaction volume reached 89,900 tonnes. Recently, the fifth round of coke price increases has been implemented, and iron ore prices have also shown strength. Long-process steel mills are facing expanding losses, and cost factors are providing strong support for steel price trends. However, despite entering the traditional "Golden September" consumption peak season, terminal demand has remained subdued with no significant improvement, and market confidence stays weak. Short-term rebar prices are expected to continue fluctuating within a narrow range.

Iron Ore: The main iron ore futures contract i2701 declined slightly yesterday, closing at 738 yuan per tonne, down 6.5 yuan from the previous settlement, a decrease of 0.87%, with trading volume of 247,700 lots and open interest rising by 21,500 lots. Port spot prices fell, with Rizhao Port's 60.8% PB fines dropping 8 yuan to 700 yuan and Carajas fines down 8 yuan to 852 yuan. According to media reports, SimFer, the joint venture for the Simandou project, initiated commissioning of key infrastructure at the Maribaya port on September 9. Once completed, this port will support annual iron ore exports of 120 million tonnes, indicating that global iron ore supply will remain relatively loose in the long term. On the demand side, steel mills still have restocking expectations ahead of the holiday period. However, with the fifth round of coke price increases taking effect, steel mill losses have widened, and there are expectations of reduced hot metal output in the future. The iron ore market is expected to continue operating within a narrow range in the short term.

Coking Coal: The coking coal market declined yesterday. The coking coal 2701 contract closed at 1,655 yuan per tonne, down 34.5 yuan, a decrease of 2.04%, with open interest reducing by 21,070 lots. In spot markets, Jiexiu main coking coal (A<10.5, S<1.3, G>80) held steady at 2,240 yuan per tonne. At Ganqimaodu port, Mongolian No.5 raw coal fell 2 yuan to 1,681 yuan per tonne, while Mongolian No.3 washed coal remained unchanged at 1,850 yuan per tonne. Daily truck crossings for Mongolian coking coal imports at Ganqimaodu have recovered to over 700 vehicles. Shanxi coal mines are subject to strict safety inspections, with most suspended operations still awaiting review and approval from regulatory authorities. The recovery of coking coal supply has been significantly delayed, and most operating mines are maintaining low production loads due to stringent safety compliance requirements, previous overproduction, and underground mining conditions. Overall capacity release remains slow. The steel industry's overall profitability is poor, yet daily hot metal production remains at high levels, providing stable consumption of fuel and solid support for coking coal prices. However, as steel mills face widespread losses and severely constrained profit margins, their ability to absorb high-priced raw materials has weakened. Coking coal prices are expected to fluctuate within a wide range in the short term.

Coke: The coke market declined yesterday. The coke 2701 contract closed at 2,160.5 yuan per tonne, up 31 yuan, an increase of 1.41%, with open interest decreasing by 2,710 lots. In spot markets, Rizhao Port's quasi-first-grade metallurgical coke fell 50 yuan to 2,060 yuan per tonne. On September 8, some coke producers proposed price increases of 100 yuan per tonne for wet quenching coke and 110 yuan per tonne for dry quenching coke, effective from midnight on September 10. Coking coal prices remain persistently high, leaving most coke enterprises in a loss-making position. Mainstream regional coke producers have proactively reduced production to 40%-50%, maintaining low operating rates. Coke supply continues to contract, shipments are smooth, and inventories remain at extremely low levels. During the "Golden September" consumption peak season, steel mills' daily hot metal output remains at relatively high levels, with no notable loosening in rigid coke consumption. Steel mill coke inventories have fallen to low levels for the year. To ensure continuous blast furnace operations, steel mills have increased their purchasing intentions for coke, largely engaging in demand-based restocking. The willingness of steel mills to passively accept price increases is relatively strong. Coke prices are expected to fluctuate within a wide range in the short term.

Manganese Silicon: On Wednesday, manganese silicon futures prices strengthened with fluctuations. The main contract closed at 5,940 yuan per tonne, up 0.81% month-on-month, with open interest declining by 19,478 lots to 297,000 lots. The black metal sector showed mixed trends yesterday, with manganese silicon futures prices shifting slightly lower. On the news front, a major Hebei steel mill's September manganese silicon tender inquiry price was 6,000 yuan per tonne, up 120 yuan from August's final pricing, with purchase volume of 20,800 tonnes, down 300 tonnes from the previous month. The final pricing outcome is being closely monitored. On the cost side, manganese ore prices have continued to face pressure recently, compressing immediate production profits for manganese silicon. Port manganese ore inventories remain high, and there is a strong willingness to bargain down ore purchase prices. However, miners are reluctant to sell at low prices due to cost support and expectations of improved future demand, suggesting limited downside for manganese ore prices. From a supply-demand perspective, manganese silicon producer operating rates have increased for four consecutive weeks, with expectations of further production resumptions after maintenance and new capacity additions. Sample steel mill weekly manganese silicon demand has declined for six consecutive weeks, and the supply-demand outlook remains relatively loose. Inventory at 63 sample manganese silicon enterprises has increased by 291,000 tonnes year-on-year, reaching historically high levels. Overall, fundamental drivers for sustained upward movement are limited. Attention should be paid to recent steel tenders, cost-side developments, and market sentiment changes. Manganese silicon futures prices are expected to continue fluctuating within a wide range in the short term.

Ferrosilicon: On Wednesday, ferrosilicon futures prices weakened with fluctuations. The main contract closed at 6,230 yuan per tonne, down 1.64% month-on-month, with open interest decreasing by 1,846 lots to 388,800 lots. The black metal sector showed mixed trends yesterday, with ferrosilicon prices performing relatively weakly. Recently, ferrosilicon price movements have been significantly influenced by cost expectation changes. A coal mine auction in Shaanxi failed yesterday, dampening market sentiment. Regarding steel tenders, a major Hebei steel mill's September ferrosilicon tender inquiry price was 6,300 yuan per tonne, up 120 yuan from August's final pricing, with September purchase volume of 3,804 tonnes, an increase of 164 tonnes from the previous month. The final pricing is being monitored. From a fundamentals perspective, cost factors remain the key focus recently. Regional electricity price settlements vary, with Qinghai increasing by approximately 0.1 yuan per kWh and Ningxia decreasing slightly by around 0.01 yuan. Continued attention should be paid to coal price movements. On the supply-demand front, weekly ferrosilicon production has increased for four consecutive weeks, while sample steel mill weekly ferrosilicon demand remains at relatively low levels compared to the same period in the past five years. Inventory at 60 sample enterprises decreased week-on-week, while ferrosilicon warrants plus valid advance reports increased week-on-week. The supply-demand dynamics do not currently support sustained significant upward momentum. In summary, recent steel tenders, cost developments, and market sentiment changes require close attention. Ferrosilicon futures prices are expected to continue fluctuating within a wide range in the short term.

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