Hong Kong stocks opened higher but reversed course to close lower on Tuesday, with all three major indices finishing in negative territory. Auto and lithium battery shares declined, gold-related stocks remained weak, and technology internet stocks showed mixed performance. By the close, the Hang Seng Index fell 1% to 24,667.24 points, with full-day turnover reaching HK$187.201 billion, while the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped 0.62% to 4,291.34 points.
Among the largest Hong Kong-listed ETFs by scale, Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800) slipped 1.02% to HK$25.30, Southern Hang Seng Tech ETF (03033) declined 0.57% to HK$4.212, and Hang Seng China Enterprises ETF (02828) fell 1.07% to HK$84.74.
In the sector spotlight, semiconductor-related ETFs bucked the broader market downturn, climbing against the tide as top-level domestic policy directives were formally implemented. By the session's end, Huatai-PineBridge STAR Semiconductor Equipment ETF (588710.SH) advanced 3.81% to RMB 0.953, ChinaAMC STAR Semiconductor ETF (588170.SH) gained 3.71% to RMB 0.922, and E Fund Semiconductor Equipment ETF (159558.SZ) rose 3.35% to RMB 1.050. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the National Development and Reform Commission jointly issued the "15th Five-Year Plan for the Development of the Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry," setting a target for revenue of enterprises above designated size to exceed RMB 30 trillion by 2030. The plan calls for comprehensive breakthroughs across the integrated circuit value chain, with sustained improvements in the supply capacity of key equipment, materials, and components. CITIC Securities noted that the transmission chain from memory sector prosperity to fab expansion is currently being activated, and demand for domestic semiconductor equipment is expected to keep expanding alongside rising wafer foundry capital expenditures. The firm recommends focusing on segments with lower domestic substitution rates, such as etching and metrology tools. Guosen Securities echoed this view, expressing optimism for equipment segments with low localization rates, highlighting that domestic leaders in certain areas are entering a critical window for customer qualification, order expansion, and market share gains.
Conversely, gold equity ETFs largely declined as rising expectations for a US rate hike pressured the precious metal's trend in the near term. By the close, Yongying Gold Stock ETF (517520.SH) dropped 2.19% to RMB 2.056, Huaan Gold Stock ETF (159321.SZ) fell 2.11% to RMB 1.578, and Guotai Gold Stock ETF (517400.SH) slid 1.99% to RMB 1.623. Last week's release of US August CPI and PPI data indicated that inflationary pressures remain elevated, with core CPI rising more than expected on a month-over-month basis. Market pricing now implies a probability of over 90% that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 basis points in September. Meanwhile, escalating Middle East geopolitical tensions pushed international oil prices higher, and the 10-year US Treasury yield briefly surpassed 5% — its first time above that level since 2023. The US dollar index strengthened, and spot gold fell below the $4,300 per ounce threshold. Founder Securities observed that the stronger-than-expected US inflation data in August has lifted the probability of a September Fed rate hike to 90%, yet central bank gold purchases, ETF fund inflows, and demand for low interest rates provide underlying support for gold prices. The firm expects the Fed to avoid an extremely hawkish stance this year and believes that a September hike could represent the exhaustion of negative news for the metal.
From an institutional perspective, CICC analysis suggests that in the short term, the impact of overseas disruptions has yet to be fully digested. Uncertainty persists around Middle East geopolitical developments, and restoring credibility to the Fed will take time. Additionally, September marks the traditional peak issuance season for US investment-grade credit bonds, which may intensify supply pressure in the credit market. US Treasury yields are unlikely to decline rapidly, global liquidity remains generally tight, and volatility in global risk assets could expand. Looking ahead, attention should be directed to the September FOMC meeting, oil price movements amid geopolitical uncertainty, and the impact of US midterm elections. While external disturbances continue to exert a phased influence on A-shares, there is no need for pessimism regarding the market's medium-term trajectory, as the sustained and steady uptrend observed since September 24 is expected to persist.