Shares of the GEM board's largest heavyweight, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited (SZSE: 300750), commonly known as CATL, experienced a dramatic single-day crash on September 15th. The stock plummeted 6%, wiping out approximately RMB 90 billion in market capitalization based on A-share pricing, bringing its total market value to below RMB 1.5 trillion. The sudden share price decline appears to be driven by fresh information rather than old news, as market chatter during trading hours suggested the company may be lowering its production schedules and reducing its per-Wh profit guidance. As of now, CATL has not yet issued an official denial of these rumors. Current market expectations place the company's production schedule at 1.1 to 1.2 TWh, representing year-on-year growth exceeding 50%. Just two days prior, on September 13th, CICC released a research report based on Xinluo production data, indicating that Q3 2026 production was projected to rise 65-70% year-on-year and 15-20% quarter-on-quarter, maintaining a relatively high level of industry prosperity. The report suggested a high probability of achieving full-year production of over 1.1 TWh. An examination of CATL's 2026 interim report reveals that its first-half production capacity had already reached 525 GWh, with 764 GWh under construction. The capacity utilization rate during the first half stood at 94.86%, essentially operating at full capacity, making it seem quite feasible to complete 1.1 TWh of production for the full year. Additionally, CATL reported first-half net profit of RMB 43.2 billion, up 42% year-on-year, with market expectations pointing to full-year profits exceeding RMB 95 billion.

A significant point of contention surrounding CATL is its share buyback program. On July 25th, the company announced a buyback plan of RMB 20 billion to RMB 40 billion, with a maximum price cap of RMB 573 per share, projecting the repurchase of approximately 69.81 million shares. At that time, CATL's share price stood at RMB 383; it has since fallen to RMB 316, yet the total buyback amount remains a mere RMB 200 million. Even after today's 6% plunge, no substantial buyback activity has been observed, drawing criticism from shareholders who complain that the two months of repurchases have been far too minimal, with some calling the lack of action deceptive and labeling the buyback program a mere facade. As of now, CATL has only executed RMB 200 million in buybacks on September 11th.

A detailed breakdown of the reasons behind CATL's sharp decline reveals multiple factors. Since May, the logic of energy substitution has plateaued, with capital flowing toward technology breakthroughs instead. The Xingxiawo lithium mine resumed production on the evening of June 29th, equipped with an annual capacity of 100,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate, dealing a severe blow to an already oversupplied lithium carbonate market. Recently, a wave of "de-CATL-ization" has been spreading across the automotive industry. Ideal's new vehicle and Xiaomi's Pengcheng N70 and N90 models have also not adopted the CATL batteries previously chosen for SU7 and YU7, opting instead for Xiaomi's Longjia battery system, with cells supplied by CALB and Sunwoda. The continuous decline in auto stocks throughout the year means CATL, as an upstream supplier to the automotive sector, cannot remain insulated. Its power battery business, deeply intertwined with the automobile industry, contributes nearly 70% of the company's revenue. Both consumer downgrading and automaker price wars pose threats to CATL's profitability. Data from the China Passenger Car Association shows cumulative auto retail sales from January to August reached 11.799 million units, down 20% year-on-year. Structurally, August fuel vehicle retail fell over 40% year-on-year, nearly halving, while August new energy vehicle retail reached 1.005 million units, also declining 10.1% year-on-year. Furthermore, CATL faces another headwind: starting September 1, 2026, a 2% consumption tax will be levied on mature battery products such as lithium-ion batteries, rising to 4% from September 1, 2027. Meanwhile, emerging technologies like sodium-ion and solid-state batteries will be exempt from taxation until the end of 2028. Analysts believe the lithium battery consumption tax adjustment reshapes the fundamental logic of industry competition, with "oil-electric parity" forcing automakers to compete on genuine strength. In-house battery production has become a threshold for automakers to balance profits, and Xiaomi Auto and Ideal's accelerated self-developed battery efforts are direct products of this consumption tax policy. The future of the automotive industry will no longer be limited to competition among terminal models but will extend upward to the entire supply chain, where whoever controls the discourse is more likely to survive the brutal competitive landscape.

Amidst widespread bearish sentiment and a dense cluster of negative news, a well-known Xueqiu influencer named "Shengxin Shengli" has taken an aggressive contrarian stance, deploying 2x leverage to go all-in. The influencer made a late-session auction purchase of RMB 5.56 million, against a net asset value of just RMB 2.8 million. This leveraged bet likely hinges on expectations of increased buybacks from CATL or a technical oversold rebound. In response to this significant capital move into CATL, another prominent Xueqiu commentator remarked: "Catching a falling knife during high volume, breakdown, and accelerating decline? No need to say more." Shengxin Shengli fired back directly: "You don't understand a thing." Some retail investors mocked the move with sarcasm: "Tonight's announcement: the company's major shareholder repurchased 17,400 shares for RMB 5.5 million and will rename the company to 'Shengde Era'." Others expressed admiration: "Say what you will, daring to take real positions in real-time beats those who claim to have bought after the fact or after the surge, a thousand times over." Notably, CICC had published a research report after CATL's RMB 200 million buyback on September 11th, stating that the company's initiation of buybacks at the current juncture may reflect that the share price is undervalued, demonstrating management's confidence in future development. Yet, just three days after the bullish call, CATL experienced its sharp plunge. CICC continues to advocate for the company's alpha through overseas expansion, new scenarios, new technologies, and ecosystem expansion. The report notes that CATL, leveraging its battery manufacturing capabilities, is continuously expanding its business ecosystem, with AIDC, mineral resources, battery swapping, and recycling expected to contribute incremental gains in the medium term. CICC maintains its target prices of RMB 500.0 for A-shares and HK$715.0 for H-shares, along with an "Outperform" rating.