Pacific Securities has released a research note indicating that MIXUE GROUP (02097) generated revenue of RMB 15.216 billion in the first half of 2026, marking a 2.3% year-on-year increase. Net profit attributable to shareholders reached RMB 2.296 billion, with gross profit totalling RMB 4.630 billion. The company declared its inaugural dividend since listing, proposing a special dividend of approximately RMB 1.006 billion, representing a payout ratio of around 44%.

The brokerage believes that MIXUE GROUP's core competitiveness stems from its robust supply chain and brand moat. Based on the company's performance and recent developments, Pacific Securities has revised its earnings projections, forecasting revenues of RMB 34 billion, RMB 37.3 billion, and RMB 40.8 billion for 2026-2028, translating to year-on-year growth rates of 1%, 10%, and 9% respectively. Net profits attributable to shareholders are expected to reach RMB 5.1 billion, RMB 5.8 billion, and RMB 6.6 billion, with EPS of RMB 13.56, RMB 15.17, and RMB 17.34, corresponding to forward P/E ratios of 13x, 12x, and 10x based on current share prices.

Deliberate store expansion shift while lower-tier market foundation remains solid

Breaking down by business segment, product and equipment sales revenue reached RMB 14.798 billion in the first half of 2026, while franchising and related services revenue totalled RMB 418 million, up 2.1% and 10.0% year-on-year respectively, with franchise service revenue growing faster than the overall figure. As of the end of the first half of 2026, the global store count reached 63,987, a net addition of 4,164 stores compared to the end of 2025, comprising 63,951 franchised stores and 36 directly-operated stores.

By geography, mainland China and overseas markets accounted for 59,609 and 4,378 stores respectively, representing net additions of 4,253 stores and a reduction of 89 stores from end-2025 levels. Domestic expansion momentum has continued, while overseas operations in Indonesia and Vietnam have undergone continuous operational adjustments and optimisation, resulting in a phased contraction in store numbers. Meanwhile, the MIXUE ICE CREAM & TEA brand has newly entered markets in Mexico, Kyrgyzstan, and Brazil.

By city tier, first-tier, new first-tier, second-tier, and third-tier-and-below cities host 2,906, 10,696, 11,417, and 34,590 stores respectively, with third-tier-and-below locations accounting for 58.0% of the total, further consolidating the company's advantage in lower-tier markets.

Dual cultivation of coffee and fresh beer lines, with second growth curves emerging across multiple fronts

Leveraging its triple core competitiveness of supply chain, brand IP, and store operations, the company continues to enrich its product portfolio and advance its platform-based development strategy. The sub-brand Lucky Cup has been upgraded around the principles of fresh beans, fresh milk, fresh fruit, and on-site preparation, with approximately 50% of its stores introducing low-temperature fresh milk, and the HPP-processed fresh fruit series surpassing one million cups sold in its first week. Coffee preparation has been upgraded from flash-brewed to freshly ground, with fully automatic coffee machines now covering over 3,000 stores.

The company completed the strategic acquisition of the Fresh Beer Fulu Family brand in 2025, extending its product categories into freshly drawn craft beer and building a diverse product matrix encompassing fruit beer, tea beer, and milk beer. Additionally, the company has launched its ninth-generation store format, with flagship stores now operating across 26 domestic cities, enhancing store-level operational efficiency and quality.

Quality enhancement with supply chain barriers supporting long-term resilience

In the first half of 2026, the company achieved a gross margin of 30.4%, reflecting strategic investments to further elevate product quality in line with its true, fresh, and pure product philosophy. Core beverage ingredients are 100% self-produced, and the digitalised procurement network spans the globe, establishing a solid supply chain barrier that underpins long-term development.

On the expense front, selling and distribution expense ratio, administrative expense ratio, and R&D expense ratio stood at 7.4%, 4.0%, and 0.3% respectively, up 1.2 percentage points, up 1.1 percentage points, and flat year-on-year. The rise in expense ratios is primarily attributable to increased brand IP building, store operations support, and labour costs. Overall, the net profit margin attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2026 was 15.1%, down 3.0 percentage points year-on-year.

Risk factors include food safety incidents, store expansion falling short of expectations, and intensifying industry competition.