Global energy markets are facing one of the most severe supply pressures in decades, triggered by the closure of Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline following an attack and the postponement of diplomatic talks between Iran and Gulf states. Bernstein analysts have warned that Brent crude could climb further to $120-$150 per barrel from current levels.
Brent crude futures briefly surged 3.7% overnight to trade above $108 per barrel, before easing slightly to $107.70, while WTI futures hovered near $103. According to earlier reports, a regional meeting scheduled for the 14th in Salalah, a city in southern Oman, has been postponed. Oman's Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi stated on social media Sunday evening that the delay was "to seek consensus," reiterating all parties' commitment to advancing regional dialogue and cooperation.
JPMorgan's recent energy market commentary noted that while some oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have resumed, significant uncertainty remains over whether full and sustained reopening can be achieved. CICC research indicated that the Brent price center has been steadily rising since the third quarter, with the $90 per barrel quarterly average predicted in its June mid-year outlook now materializing.
The recent escalation of Middle East geopolitical tensions has pushed Gulf oil export losses back above 10 million barrels per day, with Brent crude breaking through $100 per barrel and spot prices in the North Sea and Middle East approaching $120. Global onshore oil inventories resumed their drawdown trajectory in August-September, similar to conditions seen in April this year. Given that current inventory levels are lower than previous periods, CICC suggests that short-term crude price premium elasticity remains significant.
The oil production chain stands to benefit, including CNOOC (00883), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (00386), and PetroChina (00857). Oilfield services companies such as China Oilfield Services (02883), SINOPEC Oilfield Service (01033), Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery (00568), and Anton Oilfield Services (03337) are also poised to gain from the heightened activity in the sector.