Pre-market trading on Thursday shows a mixed picture for major US indices, with Dow futures edging up 0.10%, S&P 500 futures slipping 0.09%, and Nasdaq futures falling 0.58%. Across the Atlantic, Germany's DAX is down 0.05%, the UK's FTSE 100 has slipped 0.38%, France's CAC 40 is up 0.08%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 is off 0.24%. In the commodities space, WTI crude is rallying 2.40% to $98.36 per barrel, while Brent has climbed 2.03% to $103.26 per barrel.

Oil prices surging back above $100 a barrel has reignited inflation fears, setting the stage for what analysts see as a near-certain rate hike from the European Central Bank later today. The ECB is widely expected to deliver its second increase of the year, lifting its policy rate from 2.25% to 2.50%, while signaling that further tightening could follow if the inflation outlook does not improve. The renewed price pressure stems from escalating hostilities between the US and Iran, which have targeted military, shipping, and energy assets since late August, breaking a month of relative calm and stoking fresh concerns about energy-driven price increases across the eurozone.

White House advisers have privately raised the possibility with President Trump that the Iran conflict could stretch beyond his term in office, according to a US official. Discussions in the Oval Office and Situation Room have involved Vice President Vance and Secretary of State Rubio, among others, who reportedly flagged that Tehran could withstand US pressure through blockades and other military tactics, potentially extending the conflict past the January 2029 inauguration. Trump, however, has maintained that he expects hostilities to conclude by November, following the US midterm elections.

South Korea is on the verge of announcing a massive energy investment package in the United States worth over $100 billion, aimed at supporting American artificial intelligence infrastructure. Sources familiar with the matter indicate the deal, which could be unveiled as early as next week, involves Korean funding for up to eight nuclear power plants and a natural gas project. The agreement builds on a pact between Trump and Lee Jae-myung from last October, which reduced most US tariffs from 25% to 15% in exchange for $350 billion in Korean investment and an additional $100 billion in US energy purchases. With no projects yet materialized, frustration has been mounting among US officials, including Trump, who threatened in January to re-impose higher tariffs on South Korean goods.

The White House's copper tariff initiative appears to be stalling, with two informed sources saying no final decision has been reached on refined copper tariffs. Officials are weighing the potential manufacturing cost increases from higher copper prices against the benefits of incentivizing domestic mining. A White House spokesperson confirmed that no final determination has been made, while noting that the Commerce Department submitted its findings to Trump ahead of the June 30 deadline. The official stated that the administration continues to evaluate all options for bringing copper and other critical manufacturing back to the US, signaling that tariffs are not yet a foregone conclusion despite market expectations of expansion.

Iran-backed Houthi forces have seized the strategic Red Sea port city of Mokha on Thursday, according to two Yemeni officials, potentially giving the group greater control over this vital international shipping lane. The militants launched a rapid ground offensive that overwhelmed Saudi-backed government forces to capture the city and its port, located less than 50 miles from the narrow Bab el-Mandeb strait. Analysts note that while the Houthis have previously attacked Red Sea shipping from more northerly territory, controlling Mokha provides them with a foothold much closer to this critical chokepoint. This represents a significant victory for the group with potential implications for global trade and oil markets.

A Republican-led Senate subcommittee focused on disaster management has launched an investigation into OpenAI's handling of the July Hugging Face breach. Senator Josh Hawley of Missouri wrote to OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, noting the growing chorus of AI experts warning about existential risks. He pointed to three Anthropic researchers who publicly stated that the probability of AI causing human extinction within the next decade exceeds 10%. The probe responds to OpenAI's recently released internal investigation conclusions, with the Hugging Face incident marking a turning point in AI history that prompted the company to slow model releases and triggered industry-wide alarms about AI-driven cyberattacks.

Iran has temporarily suspended a 10% freight surcharge on foreign vessels transporting energy products to and from the country, a tactical adjustment amid heightened maritime tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. Geopolitical analyst Estefano Gomez views this as a shift in Iran's approach to offshore shipping management that could ease near-term pressure on the waterway, though it does not indicate broader de-escalation of regional conflict. The policy change may reshape market expectations, with investors now reassessing the likelihood of Iran reinstating the fee before the end of October.

Oracle Corp (NYSE: ORCL) stands out as the most financially vulnerable player in the US AI ecosystem, set to report first-quarter results after Thursday's market close. FactSet projections place quarterly revenue at approximately $19.1 billion, representing year-over-year growth exceeding 28%, with adjusted earnings per share expected at $1.74, up sharply from $1.47 in the same period last year. These forecasts align closely with the company's own guidance, which calls for total revenue growth of 27% to 29% and adjusted EPS in the range of $1.72 to $1.76.

Macy's Inc (NYSE: M) delivered second-quarter results that surpassed expectations on both revenue and profit, reporting adjusted EPS of 63 cents, well above the anticipated 37 cents. Net sales rose 1% to $4.87 billion with comparable store sales up 2.7%, both beating forecasts. The retailer responded by raising its full-year guidance to adjusted EPS of $2.15 to $2.35, yet shares still slipped in pre-market trading.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (NYSE: TSM) posted record August revenue of NT$514.8 billion, with cumulative revenue for the first eight months of 2026 reaching approximately NT$3.39 trillion, up 39.3% from NT$2.43 trillion in the same period last year. This represents an increase of over NT$950 billion in absolute terms. The chipmaker has noted that even with unprecedented factory construction speed, capacity expansion continues to lag behind demand.

The US Department of Justice is investigating whether NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ: NVDA) attempted to circumvent antitrust review in connection with a transaction signed last year with AI chip manufacturer Groq. The deal was described by Groq at the time as a "non-exclusive licensing agreement" allowing NVIDIA to use Groq's custom-built chips designed for AI tasks. As part of the arrangement, Groq's CEO Jonathan Ross and COO Sunny Madra joined NVIDIA. Similar agreements have become common across the AI sector, involving technology licensing and key personnel hires without full acquisitions.

Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) has unveiled its first foldable iPhone, with Goldman Sachs noting that both pricing strategy and product design have exceeded expectations. The bank maintains its shipment forecast of 14 million units in the base case for 2026, rising to 35 million under an optimistic scenario, viewing the device as potentially opening the mass market and providing significant benefits to the supply chain.

JPMorgan has initiated coverage on SK Hynix's American Depositary Receipts with an overweight rating and a $245 price target. The bank sees the ADRs trading at approximately a 20% discount compared to US peers, a gap that could narrow as the ADR improves global investor access, liquidity, and disclosure. With AI memory upcycle potentially extending beyond 2028, the company's HBM leadership, long-term capacity agreements, and improved shareholder returns are expected to drive both earnings growth and valuation re-rating.

Starbucks Corp (NASDAQ: SBUX) is investing $1 billion to redesign up to 9,000 stores, according to Dawn Clark, the company's senior vice president of store design and concepts. The new design aims to foster a sense of community belonging, with changes including increased seating capacity.

Key economic data and events coming up: at 20:15 Beijing time, the European Central Bank interest rate decision; at 20:30, US initial jobless claims for the week ending September 5 and August PPI; at 20:45, ECB President Lagarde's press conference; at 22:00, US August existing home sales; and at midnight, EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending September 4. On the earnings front, Oracle and Adobe report early Friday, with Kroger scheduled before the Friday open.