Jiecheng Energy Chief Economist Yan Jiantao points out that the recent oil price surge is primarily driven by an exceptionally strong El Ni帽o phenomenon, attacks on oil and gas facilities in the Middle East, and prevailing market sentiment.

At present, four notable divergences are emerging in the market. The first is the gap between spot and futures prices. At the onset of the conflict, paper markets were concerned about war-induced disruptions, sometimes pushing futures prices above spot levels. However, once the fighting began, the paper market shifted its focus to scenarios involving the end of the war, while the physical market continued to experience genuine supply-demand tightness, widening the term spread. In August, the implied spot price exceeded $120 per barrel, with futures trading at a discount to spot at one point before staging a catch-up rally. Therefore, this round of price increases in SC crude oil futures is essentially a process of futures prices converging back toward spot levels, reflecting the underlying physical market conditions.

The second divergence lies between crude oil and refined product prices. Recently, refined products have been significantly stronger than crude oil. However, as the upside potential for refined products remains limited, crude oil prices have more room to play catch-up. The third divergence is between supply chain disruptions and inventory levels. Global visible oil inventories, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve are all at low levels, further amplifying inventory-side risks.

The fourth divergence is between the Americas and the rest of the global market. Supply growth from the Western Hemisphere, led by Guyana, Brazil, the United States, and Venezuela, has been significant and has partially alleviated global supply-demand tensions. International oil prices have been experiencing wide and violent fluctuations, with sentiment shifting rapidly between gains and losses, exposing investors to significant risk.

Compared with the market conditions in early March, this rally is mainly driven by market sentiment and capital flows. This can also be corroborated by the relatively muted performance of oil-related stocks. In early March, the price increase quickly reversed after just a few trading days, with Shanghai crude oil futures prices even falling below international prices. Domestic crude oil futures possess favorable adjustment factors, and supply-demand fundamentals remain the most critical determinant. Weak domestic downstream demand does not support sustained one-way upward movement in oil prices. Furthermore, domestic inventories provide a certain buffer space that can partially offset the impact of volatility from overseas markets.