Goldman Sachs economists have updated their forecast, now anticipating a 25-basis-point interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve at its September meeting, a shift from their previous expectation of holding rates steady.
This change in the team's rate outlook follows the release of U.S. August core CPI data on Friday morning in New York, which came in higher than market expectations. Following the data release, market pricing indicated an approximate 90% probability of a September rate hike.
David Mericle, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. economist, stated in a Friday research note: "We now expect a 25bp hike at next week's FOMC September meeting, versus our prior expectation of holding rates unchanged. Although this CPI print only nudges our August core PCE forecast up to 0.26% and doesn't alter our underlying inflation view, we believe that with market pricing near 90% probability of a hike, the committee would want to avoid the significant market volatility that could result from holding rates steady."
Goldman Sachs' revised call underscores the growing conviction among investors that the central bank will act, as the latest inflation data has intensified speculation of further monetary tightening.