Motorists may want to fill up their tanks soon, as a fresh adjustment window for domestic refined oil retail prices opens at 24:00 tomorrow (September 11th). Multiple industry forecasters expect a second consecutive increase, with the cost of filling a standard 50-liter tank of 92-octane gasoline potentially rising by roughly 17.5 yuan.

Under the current pricing mechanism, domestic oil price adjustments are primarily based on a comparison of the weighted average price of international crude over a 10-working-day period against the previous cycle’s average. If the resulting change rate corresponds to a price adjustment of less than 50 yuan per tonne, gasoline and diesel prices remain unchanged, with the unadjusted amount carried over to be added or offset in the next adjustment.

During this pricing cycle, escalating tensions in the Middle East with no short-term signs of de-escalation have amplified the upward momentum and elasticity of oil prices, particularly as US petroleum inventories decline. This has caused the average price to rise compared to the previous period, pushing the domestic reference crude oil change rate from negative to positive and signaling an upward expectation for refined oil retail prices.

According to calculations from Zhuochuang Information, as of the close on September 9th, the ninth working day of the cycle, the reference crude change rate stood at 8.16%, with projected increases of 360 yuan per tonne for gasoline and diesel. The adjustment window is set for 24:00 on September 11th.

Zhuochuang Information analyst Wang Luqing noted that with just one working day remaining before the window opens, the likelihood of an upward adjustment is already highly probable. Based on this estimate, prices for 92-octane gasoline and 0-diesel are expected to rise by approximately 0.35 yuan per liter, meaning filling a 50-liter tank of 92-octane would cost about 17.5 yuan more.

Similarly, Longzhong Information analyst Liu Ting predicts that when the retail price adjustment window reopens at 24:00 on September 11th, the corresponding increase will be around 0.35 yuan per liter, though the final adjustment magnitude will depend on official announcements.

So far this year, domestic oil prices have undergone seventeen rounds of adjustments, comprising eleven increases, five decreases, and one pause. Gasoline and diesel prices per tonne have risen by 1,720 yuan and 1,655 yuan, respectively, compared to the end of last year. According to Longzhong Information estimates, once this round concludes, the adjustment pattern for 2026 will shift to twelve increases, five decreases, and one pause.