Morning Agricultural Market Update: Key Trends in Soymeal, Oils, Hogs, Eggs, and Corn

Deep News
5 hours ago

Protein Meals: On Thursday, CBOT soybeans advanced, supported by demand from China, with the market awaiting Friday's supply-demand and export reports. A large transaction announcement revealed private sales of 272,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans to China and 206,500 metric tons to unknown destinations. Wednesday had already confirmed sales of 440,000 metric tons to China and unknown buyers. For the supply-demand report, the previous estimate for September placed U.S. soybean production at 4.5 billion bushels, with a forecast range of 4.393-4.572 billion bushels, compared to the August report's projection of 4.519 billion bushels. U.S. soybean inventories are expected to decline. Brazil's soybean planting has commenced, with most farmers in Mato Grosso waiting for rainfall before sowing; Paraná has planted 0.05%, up from 0.02% a year earlier.

Domestically, both soymeal and rapeseed meal traded in a volatile range as the market awaits key reports. Physical soymeal demand remains subdued, with basis levels weakening. According to Steel Union data, domestic soybean inventories continued to climb last week due to high arrival volumes and elevated crushing rates. Domestic soymeal supply remains ample, while expectations of stronger costs persist, warranting attention to capital flows.

Oils: On Thursday, BMD palm oil fell for a third consecutive session, pressured by declines in surrounding markets and bearish data. MPOB data showed Malaysia's August palm oil imports at 49,524 metric tons, down 0.09% month-on-month, while palm oil stocks rose 7.48% to 2.8245 million metric tons. Crude palm oil production increased 1.39% to 1.8175 million metric tons, and exports declined 7.50% to 1.2947 million metric tons. High-frequency data indicates Malaysian palm oil exports for September 1-10 fell by 11.7%-17.46% month-on-month. Inventories exceeded expectations, and export data remained weak. However, higher crude oil prices limited downside losses.

Domestically, edible oil prices followed import costs lower, with the crude oil sector leading the market higher while oilseed and oil products lagged. Physical demand is soft, distribution is challenging, and exchange warehouse receipts are increasing. Steel Union data shows edible oil inventory levels continue to rise, with supply increasing amid shrinking demand. Moving forward, attention will focus on Strait of Hormuz shipping conditions, edible oil consumption, and capital movements.

Hogs: On Thursday, hog futures traded with a weak bias, with the main 2611 contract declining intraday, settling 1.36% lower at 11,570 yuan per metric ton. In physical markets, Zhuochuang data showed China's average daily hog price at 10.9 yuan per kilogram, down 0.04 yuan from the previous day. In the benchmark delivery region of Henan, the average price was 11.12 yuan per kilogram, down 0.08 yuan, while Sichuan rose, Liaoning was flat, and Shandong and Guangdong declined. Slaughter supply increased in parts of northern and southern China, with insufficient demand support weighing on prices; in parts of the northeast and southwest, reduced slaughter supply provided slight support for minor price gains. With limited changes in near-term fundamentals, physical prices are adjusting within a range, and futures continue their weak trend. From a seasonal perspective, demand improves in the third quarter, and year-end peak season support offers scope for price recoveries. However, ample supply constrains upside potential. Distant-month contracts outperform near-months on optimistic expectations of declining future supply. Attention remains on physical price trends and market sentiment impacting futures.

Eggs: On Thursday, egg futures traded in a volatile pattern, with the main 2611 contract moving upward, closing 0.44% higher at 3,842 yuan per 500 kilograms. Physical data from Zhuochuang showed the national average egg price at 5.14 yuan per jin, up 0.04 yuan from the previous day. In production areas, Ningjin's pink-shell eggs rose to 5.1 yuan per jin, up 0.15 yuan, while Heishan's brown-shell eggs held steady at 4.9 yuan per jin. In consumption areas, Puxi's brown-shell eggs rose to 5.24 yuan per jin, up 0.11 yuan, with Guangzhou's market steady at 5.38 yuan per jin. End-user demand remains stable, with traders mostly purchasing as needed; prices in consumption areas are mostly stable, with a few rising and isolated declines. During this peak demand season, ahead of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day stocking completion, physical egg prices are likely to remain firm, and futures have upside potential. Watch demand's impact on physical prices and market sentiment's influence on the board.

Corn: On Thursday, corn open interest continued to rise, with the main contract settling lower in a choppy session and wider intraday swings. In the northeast, new crop opening prices exceeded year-ago levels, drawing reasonable market attention, though arrivals at northern ports remain limited. Old corn trading is sluggish, with prices largely stable; new and old crop prices show minimal divergence. As new northeast corn supplies increase, significant price gains appear unlikely. Corn prices in northern China continued their downward trend, though the scope of declines narrowed. Some regions are seeing early summer-sown corn harvests, and with increasing volumes over time, seasonal supply pressure persists. Prices are expected to remain weak into new crop arrival. In sales areas, corn markets are broadly stable with slight local weakness. Port arrivals are adequate, while feed mills procure only on a just-in-time basis, with little appetite for bulk replenishment. Imported grain substitutes continue to divert demand, and market activity is light, with traders adopting a wait-and-see stance for new crop guidance. With new crop supplies gradually increasing, seasonal pressure suggests prices may remain soft; as domestic corn arrivals grow, price performance could be moderate. Technically, corn futures remain in short-term adjustment, with attention on the main 2611 contract's dense trading zone at 2,240-2,260 yuan for near-term direction, while the medium-term outlook stays constructive.

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