The re-imposition of a US naval blockade, now approaching its second month, continues to severely restrict Iranian oil exports, deepening the Islamic Republic's economic crisis and tightening the global crude supply picture.

Satellite imagery from the EU's Sentinel program indicates that no supertankers have loaded crude at Iran's primary export hub, Kharg Island, for at least the past two weeks. Tanker tracking data compiled by Bloomberg reveals that August oil shipments from Iran were just a fraction of pre-conflict levels. At the same time, premiums for available cargoes in the Asian market are climbing sharply, as traders report that Iranian crude supply is drying up.

Iranian central bank governor Abdolnaser Hemmati admitted last month that oil exports had effectively ground to a halt, although Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad subsequently maintained that crude was still being delivered to customers. Meanwhile, consultancy Kpler Ltd reports that Iran's onshore oil inventories are rising again, nearing the highs seen in May, while data from Vortexa shows a growing accumulation of oil on tankers trapped within the blockade zone.

The slowdown in oil shipments is cutting off a vital revenue stream for Iran, an economy already strained by a plunging currency and soaring inflation. This situation aligns with US President Donald Trump's plan for an "economic D-Day" aimed at forcing Tehran to capitulate. The conflict has escalated further over the past week, with US military strikes on several Iranian vessels in retaliation for an attack on an American warship.

Supply disruptions across the broader Middle East have pushed crude futures above $105 per barrel, prompting Iran's largest customer, China, to seek alternative sources, which has raised costs for various crude grades from Africa to Latin America.