US President Donald Trump took to social media on the 14th with a series of posts defending his Iran policy, stating he remains "open" to negotiations with Tehran while insisting that nations should compensate Washington for its role in safeguarding oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Trump claimed that Iran is "desperate" to reach a deal and that the US is open to that scenario.

Trump deflected blame for rising consumer prices onto the Biden administration, arguing that aside from temporarily elevated oil prices, other costs are falling sharply. He predicted that oil prices would plummet once the military conflict with Iran concludes. The President also asserted that American-made advanced weapons are being produced at record levels and shipped daily to forces in the Middle East, dismissing reports of ammunition shortages due to the Iran operations.

In response, Iran's Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Rezaei stated in the early hours of the 15th that Tehran will not be swayed by contradictory signals from Washington, which have fluctuated between claims that Iran will not negotiate and that it is ready to talk. Rezaei declared that the landscape regarding oil and the Strait of Hormuz has fundamentally shifted, and that Iran will absolutely not enter negotiations until its conditions are met.

Meanwhile, Yemen's Houthi forces claimed to have intercepted two waves of Saudi warplane formations over Saada province on the 14th. Spokesman Yahya Saree said the aircraft, including Typhoon and F-15 jets launched from Saudi airbases, were forced to retreat after being targeted with several domestically-made surface-to-air missiles. Saudi Arabia has yet to comment on the claims.

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy announced on the 14th that a supertanker, the "Algaya," struck a naval mine in a prohibited zone south of the Strait of Hormuz, causing an explosion and subsequent fire that extinguishing efforts failed to control. The statement reiterated prior warnings about the dangers of using the illegal route and firmly declared that the strait remains blocked and under Iran's "smart control."

Ship tracking data compiled by CCTV indicates that traffic through the narrow waterway dropped to single digits over the weekend, with only 4 vessels leaving the strait and 10 cargo ships entering. This compares to a daily average of 14 ships over the previous ten-day period, though vessels transiting with their automatic identification systems switched off are excluded from these figures.

International oil prices extended their rally in early trading, with New York crude futures climbing 0.53% to $101.93 per barrel at the time of writing. Attention now turns to the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy meeting scheduled for September 15-16, with the rate decision due on the 16th. Data from the CME FedWatch tool shows a 7.6% probability of rates remaining unchanged, while the likelihood of a 25-basis-point hike has surged to 92.4%. Markets are also beginning to price in a second rate increase within the year amid growing tightening expectations.

Analyst Hua Xiang from Yongan Futures suggests these expectations are built on sustained oil price strength driven by geopolitical tensions. With the US August core CPI hitting a five-month high, energy costs remain the primary driver. Hua notes that short-term US Treasuries are pricing in a September hike, while long-term bonds reflect confidence that core inflation remains under control, and resolving high oil prices could amplify gains in long-end bonds. Higher Treasury yields would suppress credit expansion and traditional demand, weighing on commodity prices overall, while gold faces pressure from increased opportunity costs. However, energy-related commodities differ as rising oil prices lift their production costs, providing price support, though their gains typically lag behind upstream crude in an environment where higher rates dampen demand.

All eyes now turn to the Fed's decision and any signals on the path ahead, as investors weigh elevated oil prices, tightening financial conditions, and escalating geopolitical risks in the region.