On September 11, Suiyuan Technology made its debut on the STAR Market, bringing all four of China's domestic GPU "Dragons" into the capital markets, with Biren Technology having listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange earlier this year and Mouton Thread, Muxi Shares, and Suiyuan Technology all listing on the STAR Market. Suiyuan Technology's IPO came on the heels of a brutal correction in AI-themed tech stocks. Though its first trading day still saw heavy speculative buying, the heat had cooled, with the stock closing up 179.2% — far below Mouton Thread's 425.46% and Muxi Shares' 692.95% opening-day gains. Meanwhile, Mouton Thread, which debuted on December 5 last year as the "first domestic GPU stock," and Muxi Shares, which listed soon after, have both seen their share prices plummet to record lows on September 11 and during intraday trading today, respectively, as lock-up share expirations and approaching unlock dates weigh on sentiment. Mouton Thread closed down 3.11% today, while Muxi Shares fell 5.71%.

Mouton Thread's post-IPO slide: nearly 300 billion yuan in market value erased in over nine months

Based on today's closing price, Mouton Thread has a total market capitalization of 162.6 billion yuan, down nearly 300 billion yuan from its peak of 442.3 billion yuan. Its current share price of 346.02 yuan represents a 63.23% decline from its all-time high of 941.08 yuan. The sharp drop is tied not only to the correction in hot tech stocks since July but also to recent lock-up expirations. On September 7, approximately 25.77 million shares from the initial public offering's offline placement became tradable, expanding the total float by 85%. The stock hit the 20% down limit shortly after the open that day. From the September 7 unlock through today's close, the share price has fallen by a third in just over a week, a cumulative decline of 33.37%. Despite the recent unlock, Mouton Thread's public float stands at just 56 million shares, representing only 11.91% of its total share capital. A larger test looms: on December 5, marking the one-year anniversary of its listing, 185.91 million additional shares are scheduled to be released from lock-up — equivalent to 331.98% of the current public float.

Muxi Shares faces similar overhang

Muxi Shares faces a comparable situation. The company listed on December 17, 2025, and its current public float of 18.53 million shares accounts for just 4.63% of total share capital. On September 17 — this Thursday — approximately 13.966 million shares from the IPO's legal person placement will become tradable, representing 42.98% of the current public float. Then, on December 17, the one-year listing anniversary, another 11.87 million pre-IPO restricted shares and legal person placement shares will be released, equivalent to 36.54% of the current public float. From its post-IPO high of 1,033 yuan per share, Muxi Shares has dropped 55.36%, more than halving in value. Its total market cap now stands at 184.5 billion yuan, down 228.8 billion yuan from a peak of 413.3 billion yuan.

The persistently low public float ratio has long been a problem for A-share new listings, making them prone to speculative spikes shortly after listing and creating "overnight fortune" stories. But inflated valuations from post-IPO surges leave new investors vulnerable once large batches of lock-up shares are released. For instance, Unitree Robotics currently has a public float of 30.09 million shares, just 7.44% of total share capital; on August 19, 2027, a year after its listing, nearly 229 million pre-IPO restricted shares will become tradable, equivalent to 760.26% of the current public float. Suiyuan Technology has 17.9 million shares in circulation, only 4.16% of total share capital; on June 11, 2027, 16.3 million legal person placement shares will unlock (91.05% of the current float), followed by nearly 187 million pre-IPO shares on September 11, 2027 — a staggering 1,044.03% of the current float.

Share prices diverge from fundamentals: are Muxi and Mouton still worth holding?

In stark contrast to the more-than-halved share prices, both Muxi Shares and Mouton Thread are in a high-growth phase. According to interim reports, in the first half of 2026, Mouton Thread generated revenue of 1.736 billion yuan, up 147.42% year-over-year and already surpassing its full-year 2025 revenue of 1.506 billion yuan. Cloud-based products contributed 1.693 billion yuan, roughly 97.5% of total revenue. The company narrowed its net loss to 11.56 million yuan from 271 million yuan in the year-ago period. Excluding non-recurring items, the loss was 151 million yuan, compared to 317 million yuan a year earlier. Muxi Shares posted first-half revenue of 1.324 billion yuan, up 44.67% year-over-year, with net profit of 612 million yuan versus a loss of 186 million yuan in the prior-year period; on an adjusted basis, it posted a loss of 48.86 million yuan, narrowing from a 202 million yuan loss a year ago.

So, are Muxi Shares and Mouton Thread still worth holding? It is clear that domestic GPU substitution is entering a phase of substantial volume growth — all four domestic GPU "Dragons" posted rapid revenue gains in the first half, with Biren Technology surging 1,997% and Suiyuan Technology rising 279% year-over-year. However, their ability to generate sustainable profits remains unproven. For example, Muxi Shares reported a net profit of 612 million yuan, but its adjusted figure was still a loss; the roughly 660 million yuan gap came from fair value changes in financial assets, which the company acknowledged is "not sustainable." Mouton Thread narrowed its net loss to just 11.56 million yuan, but its adjusted loss was 151 million yuan, with the difference largely stemming from government subsidies and financial asset gains. Its operating cash flow showed a net outflow of 2.169 billion yuan, equivalent to 125% of revenue, while inventory ballooned to 3.55 billion yuan, up 166% from the end of last year. Muxi Shares also saw its operating cash flow deteriorate, with a net outflow of 1.297 billion yuan. Additionally, high customer concentration and a lack of ecosystem moats remain structural weaknesses.

For current holders, the more immediate risk lies in the fact that, relative to current prices, offline placement institutions still hold massive paper gains, while pre-IPO venture capital investors have even lower cost bases. Mouton Thread's offline placement investors have a cost basis of 114.28 yuan per share (the IPO price), implying a still-impressive 202.78% return at today's close. Muxi Shares' offline placement investors, with a cost basis of 104.66 yuan per share, are sitting on a 340.57% return at today's prices. Over the medium to long term, the real test for both companies lies in their innovation capabilities, their ability to build defensible moats amid fierce competition in the domestic GPU space, and the establishment of sustainable profitability models.