On September 17, most domestic commodity futures closed lower, with pure benzene hitting the daily limit down, crude oil futures dropping over 6%, styrene futures falling more than 5%, and fuel oil futures sliding over 4%. Liquefied petroleum gas and paraxylene futures both declined by more than 3%, while apple, red dates, plastics, and PTA futures fell over 2%. Additionally, coking coal, pulp, cotton, palm oil, and ethylene glycol futures all dropped more than 1%.

Notably, since September 10, apple futures prices have been on a persistent downward trajectory, forming a "six-consecutive-session losing streak" with the AP2701 contract accumulating a decline of nearly 5%, showing clear price pressure.

Liu Jingran, an agricultural product analyst at Huishang Futures, stated that recent adjustments in apple futures prices have been significant, with intraday losses at one point approaching 4% during today's trading session. Based on production area field surveys, the new season's apples feature larger fruit size and better quality, with improved high-quality fruit ratios, further confirming expectations of a bumper harvest. Deeper pressure stems from the consumption side, as total apple consumption has been declining year by year, leading to a pessimistic market outlook for overall demand for common fruits.

Liu Jingran analyzed that early-maturing apples are currently hitting the market continuously, with abundant supplies of seasonal fresh fruits, highlighting the substitution effect among different fruits. Downstream buyers remain cautious in their purchasing approach, mostly maintaining a need-based procurement model, and spot market turnover has fallen short of expectations, failing to provide support for futures prices.

Hou Zhifang, an apple researcher at Founder Mid-Frequency Futures, believes that from the spot market perspective, early-maturing apples have shown a pattern of opening low and continuing to decline after hitting the market, with both opening prices and sales performance failing to meet expectations. Although some production areas have seen relatively limited supplies of high-quality fruit due to factors such as coloring, fruit size, and firmness, keeping local prices relatively firm, this has not reversed the overall weak price trend for apples. Instead, it indirectly reflects insufficient support from terminal consumption for market sentiment.

"Mid-Autumn Festival stocking has remained generally stable, with buyers primarily purchasing on demand. There has been no significant surge in demand for gift boxes and premium products, and wholesale market turnover has been mediocre. Combined with ample supplies of substitute fruits diverting demand from apples, the stocking-driven rally has not delivered any surprises," Hou Zhifang told reporters.

Hou Zhifang noted that on the supply front, bagging survey data from production areas has further solidified expectations of a substantial production increase, with year-on-year growth in bagging volumes across major production areas. The new season's late-maturing Fuji apples are highly likely to see a recovery in output. Current weather conditions in production areas remain generally stable, with supply-side pressure continuing to transmit to the futures market. Under the combined influence of clear supply pressure, weak consumption, and pessimistic market sentiment, apple futures prices have continued to decline. After AP2701 broke through key support levels, the technical outlook has also weakened.

Looking ahead, Hou Zhifang believes that against the backdrop of subdued overall market sentiment, apple futures prices may continue to decline further. "In the short term, late-maturing Fuji apples have entered the critical period of bag removal and coloring, and local weather conditions still carry some uncertainty. However, the core contradiction of ample supply combined with weak consumption remains unchanged."

Liu Jingran believes that after consecutive declines, apple futures prices may experience technical rebounds, but the upside potential will be limited. Going forward, the market should closely track purchase opening prices and actual commercial fruit production output.