To cushion the impact of soaring international crude prices on the domestic market, the National Development and Reform Commission has introduced temporary regulatory measures on domestic refined oil prices while keeping the existing pricing framework intact. At 24:00 on September 11, the window for adjusting domestic refined oil prices will open. According to the latest update on the NDRC’s official website, since the price adjustment on August 28, the U.S.-Iran conflict has escalated once again, driving international crude oil prices up sharply and continuously.

To mitigate the pressure from rising global oil prices on the domestic economy, the NDRC has opted for temporary control measures within the current pricing mechanism. The commission stated that, based on the existing pricing formula, domestic gasoline and diesel (standard grades) prices per tonne should have risen by 435 yuan and 420 yuan, respectively, on September 11. After the regulatory adjustments, the actual increases per tonne are set at 260 yuan for gasoline and 250 yuan for diesel. When converted to per-litre terms, the national average increases are 0.20 yuan for 92-octane gasoline, 0.21 yuan for 95-octane gasoline, and 0.21 yuan for 0-degree diesel.

This adjustment will raise fuel costs for private car owners and logistics companies. For a typical private car with a 50-litre fuel tank, refuelling will now cost around 10 yuan more per full tank. For a model with a city fuel consumption of 7–8 litres per 100 kilometres, the additional expense averages about 1.5 yuan per 100 km driven. For a large logistics truck carrying a full load of 50 tonnes, fuel costs increase by approximately 8.4 yuan per 100 km.

Looking at the supply side, the global crude market remains in a deficit, with demand continuing to outpace output. Industry tracker Longzhong Information’s refined oil analyst Liu Ting noted that the low-intensity military conflict between the U.S. and Iran is still ongoing. U.S. President Donald Trump has hinted that the standoff could persist until around the midterm elections, while the Strait of Hormuz continues to see reduced transit volumes. Meanwhile, Houthi rebels have stepped up attacks on Saudi oil facilities, leaving supply risks firmly on the rise.

On the demand side, performance remains weak as well. Liu explained that the U.S.-Iran situation is slowing the pace of global economic recovery and crude consumption. Refinery operating rates across many Asian countries are staying at low levels, and with the traditional U.S. peak fuel consumption season already over, seasonal support is fading. The next retail fuel price adjustment window is set for 24:00 on September 24. Liu believes the probability of another upward adjustment remains high, as the notable climb in international crude prices during the latter half of this cycle will largely factor into the next round. Moreover, a quick end to the U.S.-Iran conflict appears difficult, supply risks in the Middle East still need to be watched, and crude export volumes from several regional nations remain constrained. Geopolitical risks are likely to continue underpinning firm price expectations for the near term.