MARKET WRAPS
Watch For:
Germany trade; trading updates from Old Mutual, Finnair
Opening Call:
European stock futures inched higher early Tuesday. Asian stock benchmarks were mixed; the dollar weakened; Treasury yields were flat; while oil futures and gold rose.
Equities:
Stock futures point to a subdued open in Europe, as markets lack cues following the Labor Day holiday in the U.S. on Monday.
"Market sentiment remained cautious," analysts at CIMB's treasury and markets research said in a report, citing factors such as escalating geopolitical tensions.
Forex:
The Federal Reserve will likely raise interest rates in September, boosting the dollar in the near term, ING said in a note.
"We now see EUR/USD ending this year at around 1.16 from 1.18 previously," ING said, adding that their broader bearish dollar view is delayed rather than derailed.
Bonds:
Soaring bond yields are a source of unease for U.S. investors-and they're sparking even more of a panic across the Atlantic.
Europe is seen as even more exposed because of its reliance on imports of oil and natural gas. Prices of those commodities have surged since war broke out in the Middle East in late February.
Unless there is a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz soon, yields could carry on rising. Yields on the continent ticked higher over the summer, and marched higher on Monday.
Energy:
Oil rose as traders parsed developments in the Middle East. "Saudi Aramco's oil facilities in Jazan came under fresh attacks on Monday," ANZ Research analysts said, citing a media report.
"The recent escalation of the Middle East conflict has increased the likelihood of a prolonged standoff, punctuated by calibrated military action by the U.S. and Iran," the analysts said. "This could see Persian Gulf supply remain constrained through the rest of 2026," they added.
Metals:
Gold rose in early Asian trade, as investors look to U.S. inflation data due Friday. The CPI print will be critical in determining whether the Fed will tighten its policy next week, with persistent price pressures likely remaining a near-term headwind for gold, MUFG Bank's Soojin Kim said. Copper extended gains, hitting a record high in Asian trading. Prices are supported by strong fundamentals and tightening inventories, ANZ research analysts said.
"Ongoing supply-side issues have been mounting in recent months," they said. Shipments from Chile, the world's largest copper producer, hit their lowest level in more than a year in August, they noted. Iron ore prices rose. Near-term demand is expected to improve as steel mills restock ahead of China's weeklong National Day holiday, Baocheng Futures analysts said in a note.
Steel production is stabilizing and ore consumption is ticking up, while weak mill margins limit the strength of the recovery in demand, they said. Chinese port arrivals are rebounding sharply, while miner shipments ease, but both remain relatively high for the year, keeping overall supply ample, they said. The market is likely to remain supported in the near term by restocking before the holiday, they added.
TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES
The Stock Market's Breezy Summer Is Over. Investors Beware.
The stock market had a decent summer. Investors are bracing for a bumpier fall.
In the past couple of months, equity investors cheered soaring profits at big companies, shrugged off jitters in the bond market and nudged megacap tech shares back near records.
Iran's Oil Dollars Are Drying Up-and Plunging It Deeper Into Crisis
DUBAI-Iran's oil export revenue is drying up as a U.S. naval blockade strangles shipments from the Persian Gulf and offshore stockpiles feeding China dwindle, putting more pressure on Tehran's battered economy.
No Iranian crude has crossed the blockade since it was reinstated by the U.S. Navy in mid-July, according to ship tracker Kpler. Iran is still loading small amounts of oil onto tankers, but those barrels remain trapped inside the Gulf.
LME Copper Prices Hit Record on Supply Issues, U.S. Tariff Concerns
Copper prices surged to a fresh record on the London Metal Exchange, as mounting concerns over mine supply and the prospect of potential U.S. tariffs sent buyers scrambling for the metal.
Benchmark three-month copper futures rose 0.9% to $14,510 a metric ton after hitting an all-time high of $14,533 a ton earlier in the session-surpassing the previous record set in January. Prices have gained 16% so far this year.
After Far-Right Triumph, Merz Faces Narrow Path to Save His Government
BERLIN-Germany's embattled leader faces an uphill battle to save his government after a historic far-right victory on Sunday that could reshape the country's political system.
Chancellor Friedrich Merz sounded both humbled and defiant when he addressed his party's defeat on Monday. "This is the worst defeat the CDU has experienced in years, even decades," he said. "It will of course have consequences."
Amazon Plane Crash Probe Examines Aircraft Speed, Runway Safeguards
Accident investigators probing an Amazon cargo flight crash in Miami are looking into a range of causes, including the speed of the aircraft, the weather, and whether an airport safeguard might have helped prevent the tragedy.
At a press briefing Monday, National Transportation Safety Board Chairwoman Jennifer Homendy said those were among the many factors that the agency would evaluate, as investigators look into Sunday's accident that killed five people on the ground and injured five more.
How Nvidia's Investment Juggernaut Can Jump from Big to Enormous
Move over venture capitalists-Nvidia is the heavyweight investor in artificial intelligence. And the chip maker's portfolio is only set to get bigger in the coming years.
According to Nvidia, as of July 26 it had equity investments worth $99 billion and equity investment commitments of $25 billion. But the devil is in the details, so here's a guide to Nvidia's portfolio.
Write to singaporeeditors@dowjones.com
Expected Major Events for Tuesday 04:30/NED: Aug CPI
06:00/GER: Jul Foreign trade price indices
06:00/GER: Jul Foreign Trade
06:00/DEN: Jul Industrial production & new orders
06:00/GER: 2Q Labour cost index
06:00/DEN: Jul External trade (provisional figures)
06:00/DEN: Jul Balance of payments (provisional figures)
06:30/HUN: Aug CPI
06:45/FRA: Jul Foreign trade
06:45/FRA: Jul Balance of payments
07:00/AUT: Jun Foreign Trade
07:00/SVK: Jul Foreign trade
08:00/CZE: Aug Unemployment data
08:00/ICE: Aug External trade, preliminary figures
08:30/UK: 2Q Mortgage Lenders and Administrators Return (MLAR) statistics
09:00/CRO: Jul Foreign Trade
10:00/FRA: Jul OECD CPI
17:59/UK: 4Q Manpower UK Employment Outlook Survey
23:01/UK: Aug UK Nations and Regions Growth Tracker
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