Lou Holtz, the legendary Notre Dame coach who led the undefeated Fighting Irish to the 1988 national championship, always played to win.

"Why go 60 minutes and end up back where you started?" he once replied to a question about settling for a tie or going for a victory.

Stocks have played a nail-biter this summer, navigating a surge in global crude prices triggered by Iran and Russia; a meltdown in the bond market; another trade fight with Canada; and questions over the AI trade. Throw in the run-up to November's midterm elections, too.

And stocks are pretty much back where they started.

With Labor Day behind us, the S&P 500 is a mere 100 points north of its closing level on June 2, when it recorded its last win record high with the Nasdaq Composite.

Holding gains is no mean feat when the world is caught in a whirlwind. Since the start of July, brent futures have gained nearly 38% and Treasury yields are up 40 basis points. Factor in the more hawkish tone of the Federal Reserve as well as President Donald Trump's new trade war rhetoric-and the going gets even tougher.

But that doesn't tell the whole story.

"Beneath an S&P 500 that has made limited headway since early June, leadership has changed materially," said Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, referring to how healthcare, financials, and energy have overtaken tech in the past few months.

Wilson, the investment bank's chief U.S. equity strategist, thinks what he calls "the momentum unwind" isn't just "a positioning event."

Morgan Stanley, he said, sees the change "as a symptom of the transition from early to mid cycle and from AI enablers to adopters.

Corporate profits have helped a lot, too. The second-quarter's massive bottom line gains-the bulk came from the tech sector-steadied the AI ship after a string of springtime concerns.

And with just four months left in the year-September is traditionally the market's weakest month-it's worth asking if stocks are going to play for the win or settle for a draw that would leave them where they are.

"I think people need to step back, relax, and focus on the fundamentals," said Nancy Tengler of Laffer Tengler Investments.

Tengler, the firm's CEO and chief investment officer, pointed to muted volatility, an emerging productivity boom that could blunt inflation, and robust corporate profit growth.

"That's ultimately what drives stocks," she added. "And the fundamentals are still pretty amazing."

There's something to be said for that assessment, given the growth estimates for both earnings and the economy. The 2026 earnings growth estimates from come in at 30% or above, while the federal government expects GDP to expand by about 2%. And the AI capex boom, which has powered the broader tech trade, shows no signs of slowing and its advances are boosting corporate profit margins.

The flip side, however, can't be ignored.

The jump in crude-it's testing $100 a barrel-has raised gas prices by than 30% higher in the past year and more gains are in sight as the weather cools and winter fuel mixes arrive. Diesel, which powers a vast majority of heavy trucks, is trading at the highest levels on record.

The bond market's tantrum is also a real worry now. A 10-year yield of 5% is in sight as the Fed eyes a rate hike and the government's mounting debt and deficit weigh on fixed-income portfolios.

That's going to stoke mortgage rates in an already depressed housing market-a 30-year is inching toward 7%-, and keep new home purchases in check. Maybe a bright spot for buyers: Prices are at their lowest in four years.

And those midterms are only two months away. Democrats are building support, which could mean Republicans lost control of the House, and possible the Senate. That's would mean gridlock until the next presidential election in 2028.

"For equity investors, the key risk is forced deleveraging," said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo Bank. "Funds facing losses or higher margin requirements may sell their most liquid and profitable holdings first, regardless of whether the companies' fundamentals have changed."

All that said, the market's main volatility gauge-the VIX-still suggests a muted path over the next month, when the third-quarter earnings seasons kicks off in earnest.

The odds of a Fed hike in September are still roughly 50% range. And the broader economy is still performing well, as evidenced by Friday's solid jobs report.

The S&P 500 is up about 12.5% for the year, but is bumping its head on Wall Street's year-end targets, which range from 7800 to 8000 points.

So will markets play for the win or, in the words of Coach Holtz, end up back where they started?

Jay Woods, of Freedom Capital Markets, is leaning toward a tie.

"Seasonal headwinds, higher energy prices and rising yields remain a major concern," the market strategist said. "Momentum is starting to wane as the market breadth is weakening. Add in the lack any major earnings results over the next few weeks and the catalysts to go higher seem fewer and fewer."

Summer's over.