Plunging Retail and Travel Stocks Could Signal Trouble Ahead for the Economy

Dow Jones
Yesterday

Many consumer and travel-oriented stocks have been hit hard over the past month, including TJX, Carnival, American Airlines, and Booking Holdings, and that could signal a weakening economy.

Some stocks-including Casey's General Stores-are down 20% or more since mid August, against a 2% decline for the S&P 500 index and a 7% decline for the broad VanEck Retail exchange-traded fund (Ticker RTH), which hit a high for the year on Aug. 11.

Some of the stock declines reflect company-specific issues, but there could be broader concerns at play. Investors are worried that higher gasoline prices, now averaging over $4 a regular gallon, and increased food and other costs are crimping consumers, particularly those with lower incomes.

Gas prices are going higher, with oil up over 20% in the past month to more than $100 a barrel, based on the Brent crude benchmark. Consumer spending has been buoyed by the affluent, whose stock portfolios have grown with the bull market. If stocks hit the skids, high-end consumers could pull back.

A bunch of consumer stocks hit new 52-week lows Thursday, including off-price leader TJX, Carnival and Lowe's.

The home-building sector also has been weak as 30-year mortgage rates move up toward 7%. The rate rose 0.05 percentage points in the latest week to 6.76% according to the latest Freddie Mac survey. Higher mortgage rates are chilling a sector already depressed by affordability and other factors.

The iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF was down 2.3% Thursday to $88.22 and was trading within a few percentage points of its 52-week low. No. 2 home builder Lennar was off 3.5% Thursday to $77.90 after hitting a new 52-week low.

Lennar now trades below its book value after declining 25% this year, one of the worst showing among the big builders. The largest home builder, D.R. Horton, was off 2.4% to $135.57 Thursday and was just above its 52-week low.

The home builder selloff Thursday was keyed off Treasury bond market, which is having one of its worst selloffs of the year. The Treasury 10-year note yield is up over a tenth of percentage point to 4.95%, near its hig42yield reached in 2023.

Among notable consumer stocks, TJX was up 0.2% to $126.42 Thursday, but it's down 25% from its high of $170 set in June. Carnival, a leader in the cruise-line industry, was off 1% Thursday to $22.47, while Lowe's, one of the two leading home-improvement retailers along with Home Depot, was down 1% to $196.59.

Looking over the past month, these consumer stocks are down over 20%: Dick's Sporting Goods, Burlington Stores, Tapestry, Casey's General Stores, ON Holding, Yeti, Lululemon, Restoration Hardware and Birkenstock Holding.

There's a long list of losers and there may be bargains in the group. The price action also doesn't bode well for the consumer and the economy.

 

At the request of the copyright holder, you need to log in to view this content

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Most Discussed

  1. 1
     
     
     
     
  2. 2
     
     
     
     
  3. 3
     
     
     
     
  4. 4
     
     
     
     
  5. 5
     
     
     
     
  6. 6
     
     
     
     
  7. 7
     
     
     
     
  8. 8
     
     
     
     
  9. 9
     
     
     
     
  10. 10