The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1136 ET - Second-round effects from high energy prices in the U.K. are unlikely to emerge, largely because labor-market conditions are much looser than they were in 2022's inflationary episode, Oxford Economics' Andrew Goodwin says in a note. The Bank of England will therefore hold its key interest rate at 3.75% until well into next year, he says. Then, once policymakers are content that the inflation shock has proven transitory, it should cut rates again, according to Goodwin. A majority of rate setters feel that cooling domestic inflationary pressures before the Iran war, the fact that the policy rate is already restrictive, and the tightening in financial conditions that's already occurred, give them breathing space to sit back and see how things play out, he says. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)

0943 ET - U.S. natural gas futures move lower in early trading as the summer season approaches an end. "A cooler forecast with plenty of supply is keeping the 'sell the rallies' theme in place," Dennis Kissler of BOK Financial says in a note. Even with U.S. LNG demand at its highest since April, heavy U.S. storage and coming mild fall temperatures mean ample supplies are available, he says. A near-term positive is that this week's storage report is expected to show a smaller-than-average inventory build. Nymex natural gas is down 2% at $2.857/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0921 ET - Oil futures extend their rally with Brent at $100 a barrel as the escalating conflict in the Persian Gulf feeds concerns about supply out of the Middle East. Increasing strikes by both the U.S. and Iran are raising the war premium and the inflation fear factor, Peter Cardillo of Spartan Capital says in a note. "At the same time, a pickup in Chinese demand is strengthening the fundamental outlook for oil, even as overall supply and demand remain relatively balanced." WTI is up 2.8% at $95.66 a barrel and Brent is 2.7% higher at $100.58 a barrel. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0848 ET - Energean delivered a strong operational recovery in Israel and is advancing the offshore Katlan field, Peel Hunt analysts write. Resilient cash generation and Katlan will help the London-listed energy company deliver its 2026 targets and set it up for future growth, the analysts write. Shares rise 8.3% to 857 pence. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)

0847 ET - Fortum's nuclear power deal with Google could have favorable implications not only for the Nordic energy company's valuation, but also the European data-center buildout story, Citi analyst Piotr Dzieciolowski writes. The deal has a long duration, is material in size, and looks to be priced at a substantial premium to current expected future wholesale prices, he says. Fortum and Google signed a 22-year power purchase agreement for 50% of the Loviisa nuclear power plant's capacity. The agreement will start in 2028 and will reach 50% of the Loviisa power plant's capacity in 2030-49. The volume linked to the deal is above 4 terawatt hours, which is about 9% of Fortum's current portfolio and 5% of Finnish demand, Citi adds. Shares rise 14%. (dominic.chopping@wsj.com)

0845 ET - The 2-year yield is rising as Brent crude crosses the $100-a-barrel threshold amid the escalating conflict in the Middle East. The U.S. military destroyed five Iranian oil tankers Tuesday, and Iran retaliated overnight with a ballistic-missile attack from Iranian territory into Jordan, with no casualties reported. The 2-year yield is at 4.43%, up from Tuesday's level of 4.40%. The 10-year yield is trading roughly at Tuesday's level of 4.81%. It's a light day for any major U.S. economic releases, and investors will be eyeing buyback details from the U.S. Treasury. (jessica.coacci@wsj.com)

0727 ET - U.A.E. banks continue to lead lending growth in the Gulf despite regional geopolitical disruption, Kamco Invest says. Gross loans at U.A.E.-listed banks rise 4.5% from the previous quarter in the second quarter, the strongest increase among GCC markets, while central-bank data show systemwide credit growth of 18.1% on year. The lending outlook also remains firm, with First Abu Dhabi Bank raising its full-year loan-growth guidance to the upper end of its low-to-mid-teens range, Kamco says. (farhan.rafid@wsj.com)

0726 ET - Qatar's fiscal deficit risks widening beyond Standard Chartered's 5% of GDP forecast for 2026 as constrained LNG exports weigh heavily on hydrocarbon revenue, the bank says. The second-quarter deficit widened to $5.8 billion from $0.2 billion a year earlier as government revenue fell 57%, while spending remained resilient. Standard Chartered says seasonal non-hydrocarbon receipts cushioned the shortfall and, without that support, the quarterly deficit would have approached $11 billion. Substantial sovereign assets and access to debt markets provide ample room for financing, it says. (farhan.rafid@wsj.com)

0707 ET - Qatar's budget deficit more than doubles in the second quarter as government revenue falls sharply, Ministry of Finance data show. The state records a deficit of 21.2 billion Qatari riyals ($5.8 billion), up from QR10.3 billion in the first quarter, while revenue drops to QR25.6 billion from QR37.8 billion. Spending is little changed at QR46.9 billion, versus QR48.1 billion in the previous quarter, pointing to weaker revenue as the main driver of the wider fiscal shortfall. (farhan.rafid@wsj.com)

0633 ET - Saudi Arabia's economy contracts in the second quarter as a sharp decline in oil activity outweighs modest growth elsewhere, according to the General Authority for Statistics. Real gross domestic product falls 4.7% on year, with oil activities down 24.8%, while non-oil and government activities each grow 0.9%. The breakdown shows the downturn remains concentrated in the oil sector, with underlying non-oil activity continuing to expand despite regional disruption. (farhan.rafid@wsj.com)

0557 ET - The stock market should continue to rally into the middle of 2027 as positive performance extends outside of tech to other sectors, Citi analysts write. "'Broadening' market performance is finally taking shape," the analysts write, with financial and materials stocks--as well as tech--seen outperforming the market. However, risks around equity performance are increasing, the analysts note. An escalation to the U.S.-Iran conflict, Federal Reserve rate hikes and volatility around elections could all weigh on sentiment, they say. Moreover, negative macro/political developments could compound volatility from stepped-up scrutiny around the global AI trade, they add. (josephmichael.stonor@wsj.com)

0527 ET - Concerns about inflation risk due to elevated energy prices could dominate the U.K. government bonds market for a long time, Mizuho's Evelyne Gomez Liechti says in a note. Brent crude price advances 2.7% to $100.53 per barrel, raising inflation risk and the possibility of the Bank of England increasing interest rates in the coming months. Markets fully price in three quarter-point BOE rate rises by July 2027, LSEG data show. Ten-year gilt yields climb 4 basis points to last trade at 5.202%, Tradeweb data show.