Europe played it cool in energy markets this summer.
Instead of panicking and buying every cargo of liquefied natural gas it could get its hands on, the region held off placing orders in the hopes that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen and send prices lower.
The gamble hasn't paid off. Europe heads into winter with the lowest inventories of natural gas in 15 years and is exposed to high prices if it needs to turn to the spot market later this year for more supplies.
But the region is keen to avoid the mistakes it made four years ago, when some governments were saddled with huge losses from buying natural gas at record-high prices and selling low.
A wrinkle that adds to Europe's difficulty is the low number of LNG tankers slipping out of the Strait of Hormuz compared to oil vessels, which is keeping the market tight.
In August, only five cargoes laden with LNG made the crossing, data from Kpler shows, compared with 97 crude oil tankers.
Globally, oil tankers outnumber LNG tankers by roughly nine-to-one. But owners of LNG vessels are also behaving more cautiously.
LNG ships are expensive to build, need to be specially designed to keep the superchilled gas in a liquid state and must be manned by a skilled trained crew.
Putting these precious cargoes in harm's way isn't appealing at current prices. That leaves Europe hoping that the waterway becomes safe to pass soon. Failing that, the region needs a mild winter.