Market Talk Roundup: Latest on U.S. Politics

Dow Jones
Sep 10

Market Talks covering the impact of U.S. Politics and White House policies on companies and markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0239 ET - The U.S. dollar falls slightly alongside slightly lower oil prices and Treasury yields, awaiting input from Thursday's PPI and Friday's CPI data for August. "Despite higher energy prices and firm short-dated U.S. interest rates, the dollar remains soft," ING's Chris Turner says in a note. The fact that the dollar is not stronger may be attributable to both the investment environment and to developments in the U.S. dollar-Japanese yen currency pair, the global head of markets says. The DXY index falls 0.1% to 98.738. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

1401 ET - The direct cost to Canada from President Trump's latest tariff adjustment and import ban is a proverbial drop in the bucket, says economist Tu Nguyen of RSM Canada. "The indirect economic impact is more serious," she warns. Until recently, Canada's economy has struggled under the weight of trade-policy uncertainty stemming from Trump's expanded use of tariffs. Talks toward a US-Canada trade pact collapsed, igniting a tit-for-tat tariff conflict. "Uncertainty remains the elephant in the room," Nguyen says. Firms can account for tariffs, "but they cannot plan for rules that seem to change on a near-constant basis." She adds that Canada PM Mark Carney's recent remarks have a somber tone, suggesting turbulence ahead for households and firms. (Paul.Vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)

1343 ET - A memecoin launched by Hunter Biden, called Hunter Biden's Laptop ($LAPTOP) initially jumped 200% in the first few minutes of its debut. It has since shed 98% of its value, and currently trades at $1.81 with a fully-diluted market cap around $1.76B, according to data from Coinbase via its Base app, which is where the coin was launched, according to WSJ. The coin debuted at 8 a.m, and was down 95% by 9 a.m., according to data from Base. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

0934 ET - Bank of Nova Scotia economist Derek Holt says that, on net, the Trump administration's adjusted tariffs and ban on certain Canadian imports is more like a "face saving" exercise. It's "not substantive in nature and that's a positive," Holt tells clients. His team estimates a net impact for Canada of $1.2 billion, or 0.3% of nominal GDP. Some of the banned imports from Canada amount to "small potatoes," Holt adds, citing $100 million of motorcycles. Canadian dairy products subject to a U.S. ban had minimal sales to America, Holt adds. Forex traders appear in agreement, with the Canadian dollar holding steady versus USD. (Paul.Vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)

0931 ET - President Trump's orders to ban certain Canadian imports "could have been much worse," says Wolfgang Alschner, a business-and-trade law professor at the University of Ottawa. "It is clearly more posturing than escalation," he says in a LinkedIn post. Alschner says the ban of certain Canadian imports, effective Sept. 29, is modest, and covers less than 0.25% of Canadian exports. For instance, the U.S. intends to ban Canadian-made mopeds valued at C$81 million. Canadian alcohol accounts for a sizable chunk of the U.S. import ban, but Alschner notes the ban covers only packaged products. Canadian alcohol, like beer, can be sent to the U.S. in bulk and packaged there, he adds. (Paul.Vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)

0834 ET - President Trump's ban of Canadian imports covers only 0.25% of goods that Canadian firms send southbound, according to estimates from Stephen Brown of Capital Economics. Trump's tariff adjustments are also a wash, he says, as the new Canadian imports subject to a 50% duty are offset by other goods now exempt. Brown cites, for instance, the removal of the 50% levy on switchgear assemblies and cement from Canada, which he reckons is connected to America's push to build data centers. The economic damage is minimal, Brown says, but adds a weak 4Q is now a strong possibility. Brown's bigger worry is a sharply diminished likelihood of Washington and Ottawa resolving their trade conflict, and an increased risk that Trump withdraws from the US-Mexico-Canada trade treaty, or USMCA. (paul.vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)

0818 ET - BRP once again finds itself in the crossfire of U.S-Canada trade tensions. President Trump modified the scope of some existing tariffs on Canada, and has now imposed 50% levies on some all-terrain vehicles and boats. BRP manufactures Can-Am ATVs and its popular personal watercraft Sea-Doo, which includes the Sea-Doo Switch pontoon boat lineup. The U.S. represents BRP's largest market, where it generates more than half of its annual revenue. The company recently said full-year net exposure is expected at C$200 million, down from earlier estimates, but BRP's tariff situation remains a complex headwind, and the continuing back-and-forth between the two neighbors adds further operational uncertainty. (adriano.marchese@wsj.com)

0557 ET - The stock market should continue to rally into the middle of 2027 as positive performance extends outside of tech to other sectors, Citi analysts write. "'Broadening' market performance is finally taking shape," the analysts write, with financial and materials stocks--as well as tech--seen outperforming the market. However, risks around equity performance are increasing, the analysts note. An escalation to the U.S.-Iran conflict, Federal Reserve rate hikes and volatility around elections could all weigh on sentiment, they say. Moreover, negative macro/political developments could compound volatility from stepped-up scrutiny around the global AI trade, they add.

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