The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0802 ET - Saudi Aramco has the flexibility to rapidly increase oil supply, Barclays analyst Lydia Rainforth writes after hosting the company at the Barclays Energy-Power Conference. The Saudi Arabian national oil company can increase its output to 10 million barrels a day in two days, and reach 12 million barrels a day within approximately three weeks, she writes. "This responsiveness gives Aramco an ability to add supply materially faster than new industry projects can be developed," she writes.(adam.whittaker@wsj.com)
0631 ET - Oil prices extend gains, with Brent crude pushing past $100 a barrel as fresh clashes between the U.S. and Iran deepen concerns over supply disruptions and the impact of a prolonged war on the broader economy. Brent crude rise 0.8% to $102 a barrel, while WTI futures are up 1.4% to $97.38 a barrel. Traders now await the release of weekly inventory data from the Energy Information Administration later on Thursday, with a particular focus on distillate stock changes given the current tightness in global diesel markets. OPEC and the IEA will also release their monthly oil reports this week. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0616 ET - Palm oil fell during the Asian trading session. Prices were likely pressured by overnight weakness in rival soy oil, Kenanga Futures writes in a note. Data from cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia estimated that Malaysia's palm oil exports during the Sept. 1-10 period fell 17% on month, indicating weaker demand. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for November delivery fell 81 ringgit to 4,885 ringgit a ton. (kimberley.kao@wsj.com)
0614 ET - Yields on U.K. 10-year government bonds climb to the highest level since 2007, due to inflation concerns caused by rising oil prices. Brent crude advances 1.2% to $102.44 a barrel as the Middle East conflict intensifies. Rising oil prices have caused markets to raise their expectations for the Bank of England to raise interest rates in the coming months. Markets fully price in three BOE rate rises by June 2027, LSEG data show. Ten-year gilt yields last trade at 5.281%, having hit a 19-year high of 5.295% earlier in the session, LSEG data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0551 ET - Galp Energia's oil and gas projects in Namibia are a major source of long-term upside, Barclay's Naisheng Cui writes. The Portuguese energy company could potentially double its production over the next decade through Bacalhau in Brazil and the Namibia assets, he writes. The Venus development is in the final stretch ahead of final investment decision--when the project would move to its development phase--and the economics continue to meet the investment criteria, the company said at the Barclays Energy-Power Conference. Attention is also shifting toward the next appraisal campaign of Namibia's Mopane, with the company planning three wells, Cui says. "We continue to view Namibia as one of the most significant sources of long-term optionality within the European energy sector," he says. Shares trade flat at 21.40 euros.(adam.whittaker@wsj.com)
0502 ET - Galp Energia is getting a cash boost from elevated refining margins, high oil and gas prices and strong power prices, Barclays analyst Naisheng Cui writes. The Portuguese oil and gas company says it could deliver close to 5 billion euros of Ebitda with Brent trading a $90 a barrel and refining margins sitting at $35 a barrel, Cui writes after hosting the company at the Barclays Energy-Power Conference. Shares trade flat at 21.40 euros.(adam.whittaker@wsj.com)
0400 ET - HSBC raised its oil-price forecasts for this year and next, saying it expects the market to remain in deficit until around mid-2027. "The revision to our crude oil price forecasts reflects a permanent disruption of the Strait of Hormuz and a longer path back to market equilibrium, with a 'new normal' that does not revert to the pre-conflict situation," analysts at the bank say. HSBC now projects Brent at $95 a barrel in the fourth quarter and at $90 a barrel for 2026 as a whole. In 2027, Brent is seen at $85 a barrel. Hormuz flows are expected to recover only gradually, reaching 8 million barrels a day by year-end and 9.5 million barrels a day by mid-2027, compared with around 19 million-20 million barrels a day before the conflict. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0354 ET - Disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has strengthened the case for Adnoc Gas to have export capacity on the east coast but who pays for it will be key, Barclays analyst Ramachandra Kamath writes. The U.A.E government is considering options to de-risk its reliance on the waterway, he adds. The key question for Adnoc Gas investors is ownership versus usage, according to Kamath. The plant would require substantial investment and has limited use under normal circumstances, he says. Adnoc Group could build the asset and then transfer it over to Adnoc Gas, like the group has done before, he says. This would avoid burdening Adnoc Gas's balance sheet or dilute the midteen project returns that management targets, he says. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)
0343 ET - European natural-gas prices are at their highest since the end of 2022 as low inventory levels and LNG disruptions in the Middle East raise concerns over winter supply. In early trading, the benchmark Dutch TTF contract is flat at 79.21 euros a megawatt-hour after breaching 80 euros in the previous session. The biggest concern is Europe's storage position. EU gas inventories are around 67% full, significantly below the 84% five-year average. With the next heating season approaching, the European gas market is more exposed to supply disruptions and renewed price volatility. A widening spread between TTF and JKM prices--the benchmark price for spot LNG in Asia--is also adding support, as stronger LNG prices in Asia increase competition for cargoes and could make it more difficult for Europe to attract sufficient supply. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0303 ET - Oil prices slip in early trading after Brent crude breached $100 a barrel, as escalating attacks between the U.S. and Iran threaten to dramatically prolong disruptions to energy flows in the Middle East. The global oil benchmark is down 0.8% to $100.42 a barrel, while WTI futures tick 0.6% lower to $95.50 a barrel. Both benchmarks settled more than 3% higher in the previous session. China's buying behavior will be a key factor to monitor to determine whether this oil rally can last, according to market watchers. "China, through much of the war, has helped to rebalance the market through lower crude oil imports," ING analysts say. But Beijing has now increased activity in the physical market, particularly in the North Sea, with crude oil imports still below a year ago but on the path to recovery from June lows. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0303 ET - Oil prices slip in early trading after Brent crude breached $100 a barrel, as escalating attacks between the U.S. and Iran threaten to dramatically prolong disruptions to energy flows in the Middle East. The global oil benchmark is down 0.8% to $100.42 a barrel, while WTI futures tick 0.6% lower to $95.50 a barrel. Both benchmarks settled more than 3% higher in the previous session. China's buying behavior will be a key factor to monitor to determine whether this oil rally can last, according to market watchers. "China, through much of the war, has helped to rebalance the market through lower crude oil imports," ING analysts say. But Beijing has now increased activity in the physical market, particularly in the North Sea, with crude oil imports still below a year ago but on the path to recovery from June lows. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0239 ET - The U.S. dollar falls slightly alongside slightly lower oil prices and Treasury yields, awaiting input from Thursday's PPI and Friday's CPI data for August. "Despite higher energy prices and firm short-dated U.S. interest rates, the dollar remains soft," ING's Chris Turner says in a note. The fact that the dollar is not stronger may be attributable to both the investment environment and to developments in the U.S. dollar-Japanese yen currency pair, the global head of markets says. The DXY index falls 0.1% to 98.738.