Oil prices rose again Thursday, with both Brent and WTI trading above $100 a barrel after Wednesday's sharp rally as markets assessed escalating attacks on Gulf shipping and renewed Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia.
Front-month Brent crude oil futures gained 4.1% to $105.37 a barrel, while front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures rose 4.3% to $100.13 a barrel. Both benchmarks traded mixed earlier in the Asian day after settling Wednesday at their highest closing levels since May 22.
U.S. Central Command said Wednesday that American forces had destroyed 10 Iranian tankers over the past week, in response to fresh attempts by Tehran to strike U.S. warships in the Middle East.
Separately, U.K. Maritime Trade Operations said Wednesday that it had received reports of several merchant vessels being subjected to fire in the northern Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman.
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned Wednesday of further restrictions on shipping around the Strait of Hormuz as Tehran seeks to challenge a U.S. naval blockade that has sharply curtailed its ability to export oil.
Meanwhile, a coalition led by Saudi Arabia pledged a response after another round of Houthi attacks on the kingdom Wednesday.
Analysts remain divided over how much of the rally reflects persistent physical supply disruption and how much represents a geopolitical risk premium.
HSBC analyst Kim Fustier said Thursday that the oil market is unlikely to rebalance until around mid-2027, with flows through Hormuz expected to rise from roughly 6 million barrels a day currently to 8 million by year-end and 9.5 million by mid-2027, still well below prewar levels of 19 million to 20 million barrels a day. HSBC raised its 2026 Brent forecast to $90 a barrel from $80 a barrel.
Julius Baer's head of economics and next-generation research, Norbert Ruecker, said oil inventories are holding up better than expected and trade around the Strait of Hormuz remains active despite the hostilities. With storage and trade conditions unable to fully explain prices above $100, he estimates that fear and speculation have inflated the risk premium embedded in crude prices by as much as $20 a barrel.
Physical crude markets are showing even greater strain. S&P Global Commodity Insights said Platts Dated Brent, a benchmark for the spot-market value of physical crude, surged to $114.26 a barrel Wednesday, while Middle East Gulf sour-crude exports averaged 5.88 million barrels a day in the second quarter, down 65% from a year earlier. Tanker costs also surged, with the cost of shipping crude from the Arabian Gulf to the Far East on very large crude carriers reaching a record high Wednesday as security risks and uncertainty over shipping routes intensified.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration also raised its assessment of the disruption in its September outlook released this week. It estimated Middle East crude-production shut-ins averaged 6.7 million barrels a day in August, up from 5 million in July, and expects shut-ins to average 5.7 million barrels a day in the fourth quarter. The agency said most production and trade flows may not return to preconflict averages until the second quarter of 2027.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries on Thursday once again cut its forecast for global oil-demand growth for this year. The group of oil-rich countries now expects global oil demand to grow by 380,000 barrels a day, down from 580,000 barrels a day previously.