The latest Market Talks covering Financial Services. Exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires at 4:20 ET, 12:20 ET and 16:50 ET.

0811 GMT - The Clarity Act may return to the Senate but this is unlikely before the midterms, making the passage even more difficult depending on the election outcome, says Carsten Menke at Julius Baer. Opposition to the Act was unexpectedly broad, with Democrats and several Republicans voting against the bill. "A consistent regulatory framework would of course be welcome, but we would also argue that regulation does not drive adoption," Menke says in an email. Prediction markets are a case in point: While blockchain-based Polymarket was the early mover, it has been outgrown by non-blockchain-based Kalshi. Something similar could happen on trading platforms, Menke says. For now, crypto markets in the U.S. could operate based on a patchwork of existing rules, regulations, court decisions, and the already-enacted Genius Act for stablecoins. (monica.gupta@wsj.com)

0803 GMT - Hong Kong's first five-year plan marks a turning point in the city's economic landscape, says Marcos Chan, head of research at CBRE Hong Kong in a note. The plan includes nearly double the spending on technology and innovation. Chan says the city is diversifying its economy and paving the way for sustainable growth. Hong Kong needs a balanced model to support traditional industries and emerging tech sectors, he notes. This plan is also asking "business stakeholders to rethink their approach to future growth and re-formulate their business strategies," he says. (amanda.lee@wsj.com)

0737 GMT - Ether stays under pressure after reaching a two-week low Tuesday when the Senate failed to pass the Clarity Act, aimed at establishing a regulatory framework for digital assets, in a procedural vote. The market is also largely pricing in an interest-rate rise by the Federal Reserve in a decision at 1800 GMT. While ether exchange-traded funds are attracting inflows, large holders of ether--known as "whales"--have recently sold the cryptocurrency, Zaye Capital Markets analyst Naeem Aslam says in a note. If whale selling accelerates and ETF inflows weaken, ether could fall further, he says. Ether drops 0.4% to $2,398 after reaching as low as $2,359 Tuesday, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0724 GMT - European stock indexes are in green across the board, as banks and AI-linked stocks recoup some of the week's losses. The Europe-wide Stoxx 600 is 0.4% higher. London's FTSE 100 adds 0.35%, led by housebuilder Barratt Redrow--up 6.15% after earnings. Miners also gain as metals prices increase. In Paris, the French CAC 40 nudges up 0.2%. Chip maker STMicroelectronics leads the index, gaining 1.75%, though software group Capgemini falls back 1.5%. Luxuries also falter--Hermes loses 0.85%. The German DAX adds 0.35%, led by AI-linked industrials group Hochtief--up 3.5%. Italy's FTSE MIB and Spain's IBEX 35 both rise by around 0.5%. The Dutch AEX rises 0.3% as ASML jumps 2.25%.(josephmichael.stonor@wsj.com)

0607 GMT - The U.S. dollar trades in a tight range in Asia ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy decision. Interest‑rate markets imply roughly a 90% probability of a 0.25 percentage point increase to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%. Most U.S. economists expect a 0.25 percentage point increase, although a few expect a 0.50 percentage point increase. Fed Chair Warsh will need to match his tough rhetoric on bringing down inflation with policy action or risk undermining his credibility about controlling inflation, says Joe Capurso, economist at CBA. In the event the Fed does not increase rates, expect a steep fall of 1% or more in the U.S. dollar, he adds. (james.glynn@wsj.com; @JamesGlynnWSJ)

0430 GMT - Westpac's argument that its investment in artificial-intelligence technologies shouldn't be judged solely on performance metrics is accepted at Jefferies. Analyst Andrew Lyons say he agrees with the Australian bank's contention that customer growth, deposit growth, lending growth, productivity and financial performance are the key measures of whether its investments have been worthwhile. Lyons tells clients in a note that focus should shift away from metrics such as employee capacity creation and the number of manual processes eliminated by AI. The primary issue is whether AI capabilities drive stronger growth, faster execution and better business outcomes, he says. Jefferies has a hold rating on the stock and a target price of 34.71 Australian dollars. Shares are flat at A$34.34. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0421 GMT - Netwealth's bull at Jefferies sees positives to the Australian wealth manager's acquisition of advice-automation platform Paradino. Analyst Simon Fitzgerald keeps a buy rating on the stock, telling clients that improving advisers' efficiency increases their capacity, grows accounts per adviser, ultimately resulting in more funds-under-administation inflows. The customer economics of the Paradino's subscription model are attractive and the platform provides a new adviser acquisition channel, he adds. Furthermore, full ownership of Paradino is seen by Fitzgerald as offering Netwealth additional flexibility compared with rival Hub24's investment in Finura Digital. Jefferies maintains a target price of 29.30 Australian dollars. Shares are flat at A$18.77. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0410 GMT - China's reluctance to launch a bigger stimulus likely reflects tighter fiscal constraints, infrastructure saturation, and weak political incentives, say Barclays economists in a report. China's official government debt is around 75% of GDP, but that excludes the vast stock of off-balance-sheet borrowing, they say. Local governments have been hit by the collapse in land-sale revenue, once a major funding source. With fiscal buffers shrinking and pension liabilities mounting, China's priority has shifted to preserving debt sustainability, they say. Also, after two decades of heavy investment in infrastructure the constraint is no longer supply, but demand and utilization. Lastly, with a new round of provincial leadership reshuffles expected from late 2026 through 2027, local governments are likely to prioritize smaller investments over new large-scale stimulus programs, they add. (monica.gupta@wsj.com)

0243 GMT - Askul needs to deliver tangible earnings growth to validate its recovery story from a ransomware incident in October last year, Jefferies analyst Hiroko Sato says in a note. The company posted 1Q net loss on Tuesday. As part of its margin improvement initiatives, the company opened a logistics center in Taicang, China, in January, to reduce logistics costs, Sato says. In Japan, Askul is expanding shipping hubs and reorganizing its logistics network around Tokyo to improve operational efficiency, she says. Artificial-intelligence implementation in sales and marketing remains a key focus, she says. Jefferies maintains a hold rating and a target price of 1,310 yen. Shares are 2.5% higher at Y1,259. (kosaku.narioka@wsj.com; @kosakunarioka)

0217 GMT - Recent Japanese capex-related indicators show companies' investment appetite remains strong despite geopolitical headwinds, says Norinchukin Research Institute economist Takeshi Minami. "Although there is no clear end in sight to the conflict in the Middle East, capital expenditure statistics are expected to remain solid for the time being, buoyed by expanding AI demand and hopes for the Takaichi administration's growth strategy," he says. Core machinery orders, seen as a leading indicator of corporate capital spending, rose 11.2% in July from a year earlier, marking two consecutive months of growth, government data showed Wednesday. (megumi.fujikawa@wsj.com)

0156 GMT - Asian currencies are mostly weaker against the greenback in Asia's morning trade ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy decision later in the day. The Fed funds futures are pricing around a 92% probability of a 25bps hike, marking the first rate increase since 2023. Investors will also focus on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference as well as updated economic projections, Commerzbank Research analysts say. The U.S. dollar rises 0.2% to 155.43 yen and gains 0.6% to 1370.92 won, while the Australian dollar is 0.1% lower at US$0.7125, LSEG data show. (amanda.lee@wsj.com)

1934 GMT - The prospect of slowing or pausing AI development doesn't herald any change to the fundamentals of the AI infrastructure buildout, Morgan Stanley co-president Dan Simkowitz says in a CNBC interview. "I think the pause or the slowing of release on the frontier really doesn't change the core dynamics," Simkowitz says, adding that spending on computing power and semiconductors doesn't show any signs of stopping. "The pacing at the frontier doesn't change the build, it doesn't change the demand, and it doesn't change the financing of that demand." He adds that capital markets remain ready for large M&A activity and IPOs.