The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0321 GMT - Japan's average import volume for July and August rose 3.3% on a seasonally adjusted basis from the April-June quarter, driven primarily by higher oil import volumes, according to NLI Research Institute estimates. Given the rise in imports, external demand measured by exports minus imports is likely to drag down third-quarter gross domestic product growth, says NLI economist Taro Saito. Reflecting a renewed spike in oil prices, customs-cleared crude oil prices--which include standard benchmark rates plus extra fees for adjustments, shipping and insurance--are set to rise again in September, he says. Japan reported a trade deficit of more than 1 trillion yen in August as imports growth outpaced that of export, government data showed Wednesday. (megumi.fujikawa@wsj.com)

0318 GMT - The Clarity Act on digital assets which didn't secure a procedural Senate vote, leaving questions around U.S. digital asset market structure and regulatory jurisdiction unresolved, says Samson Leo, co-founder and chief legal officer at StraitsX in a commentary. Agency rulemaking can continue providing guidance, but legislation offers a more durable foundation for institutions making long-term decisions. The decision also points to larger challenges ahead. Digital assets and stablecoins operate across borders, but their regulatory frameworks are being developed by jurisdictions. "The longer major markets operate without clear and compatible frameworks, the harder it becomes to address fragmentation and build genuinely interoperable cross-border financial infrastructure," Leo says.(amanda.lee@wsj.com)

0302 GMT - The Singapore dollar weakens against its U.S. counterpart in the Asian session ahead of the Fed's policy decision later Wednesday. A rate increase is now largely priced in, but uncertainty extends beyond this meeting, OCBC foreign-exchange strategist Christopher Wong says in a note. The key question is whether the Fed regards the potential rate increase as sufficient for now, or it would signal further tightening. The U.S. dollar rises 0.1% to S$1.2730, LSEG data shows.(amanda.lee@wsj.com)

0235 GMT - Hyundai Mobis' earnings could be dragged lower by a stronger won, Nomura's Angela Hong says. The South Korean auto-component supplier remains sensitive to the won's appreciation against the dollar because a substantial portion of its aftermarket parts is sourced in Korea and exported globally, the analyst writes in a note. Nomura lowers its earnings-per-share estimates for the company by 8% this year and by 10% next year, citing the won's 13% gain against the dollar since July, Hong says. Still, existing local inventory at the company could help buffer immediate foreign-exchange headwinds, she adds. Nomura cuts its target price for the stock to 470,000 won from 560,000 won but keeps a buy rating. Shares are 3.2% lower at 382,000 won. (kwanwoo.jun@wsj.com)

0229 GMT - Japan's latest trade data shows a lack of strength in the nation's exports, an important growth engine, says Norinchukin Research Institute economist Takeshi Minami. While a weak yen has sharply driven up export values, growth in export volumes lacks momentum, he says. Export values rose 19.3% in August from a year earlier, but volume increased just 2.5%, Wednesday's data showed. Car exports to the U.S. have recovered as the impact of Trump administration tariffs runs its course, while shipments to China fell amid economic sluggishness there, he adds. (megumi.fujikawa@wsj.com)

0217 GMT - Recent Japanese capex-related indicators show companies' investment appetite remains strong despite geopolitical headwinds, says Norinchukin Research Institute economist Takeshi Minami. "Although there is no clear end in sight to the conflict in the Middle East, capital expenditure statistics are expected to remain solid for the time being, buoyed by expanding AI demand and hopes for the Takaichi administration's growth strategy," he says. Core machinery orders, seen as a leading indicator of corporate capital spending, rose 11.2% in July from a year earlier, marking two consecutive months of growth, government data showed Wednesday. (megumi.fujikawa@wsj.com)

0214 GMT - Australians are generally downbeat, with a range of factors contributing to the pessimism. Top of the list is inflation, says Jonathan Kearns, chief economist at Challenger. One way of conceptualizing bad economic news is the misery index, which adds the inflation rate to the unemployment rate. If the index is changed to combine consumers' recall of news about inflation and unemployment, misery is at record levels, he adds. However, it isn't just inflation that affects households' mood, but the price level itself, Kearns adds. So even if the Reserve Bank of Australia is successful in bringing inflation back to its 2.5% target by early 2028, households might still not be happy, he adds. (james.glynn@wsj.com; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)

0213 GMT - The U.S. Clarity Act on digital assets failing to clear a procedural vote will not slow the digital market down, says XREX Group's co-founder and group chief executive Wayne Huang in a commentary. Markets had widely expected the result amid disagreement over key points in the bill to set a regulatory framework for crypto. Still, Huang notes that stablecoin adoption and real-world use cases are already moving faster than the legislative process. The Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission can also still provide greater clarity through rulemaking and regulatory guidance, even without legislation, Huang says.(amanda.lee@wsj.com)

0204 GMT - Japan is expected to log trade deficits for some time as energy costs stay high, says Mizuho Securities economist Shota Amano. "Exports are likely to keep expanding on the back of robust demand for artificial intelligence and semiconductors," he says. "However, because higher import values--driven by elevated energy prices and increased alternative procurement costs--are projected to outpace export gains, trade deficits are likely to persist in the near term." If energy prices cool, trade balances are expected to shift back toward a general recovery trend, he adds. Japan reported a 1.1056 trillion yen trade deficit in August, the largest gap since January. (megumi.fujikawa@wsj.com)

0156 GMT - Asian currencies are mostly weaker against the greenback in Asia's morning trade ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy decision later in the day. The Fed funds futures are pricing around a 92% probability of a 25bps hike, marking the first rate increase since 2023. Investors will also focus on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference as well as updated economic projections, Commerzbank Research analysts say. The U.S. dollar rises 0.2% to 155.43 yen and gains 0.6% to 1370.92 won, while the Australian dollar is 0.1% lower at US$0.7125, LSEG data show. (amanda.lee@wsj.com)

0139 GMT - Japan's import prices are expected to remain high as tensions in the Middle East drive up energy prices and alternative procurement costs, says Mizuho Securities economist Shota Amano. As a result, total import values are likely to maintain an upward trend, he says. "If the Iran situation settles and supply constraints ease, an increase in import volumes--primarily of Middle Eastern crude to replenish released oil reserves--is expected to boost overall import values," he adds. Imports rose 28.0% in August from a year earlier, following July's 27.9% growth, government data showed Wednesday.(megumi.fujikawa@wsj.com)

0126 GMT - Australia's economy isn't stalling, but it isn't shooting the lights out either. The Westpac-Melbourne Institute leading index rose to -0.09% in August from -0.17% in July. The economy is holding up better than expected in the face of a global energy shock and higher interest rates, says Matthew Hassan, economist at Westpac. Growth appears to be stabilising at a slow pace rather than stalling with households resilient and notable support coming from a strong ramp-up in data center investment, he adds. Westpac now expects annual growth to slow to 1.5% by year-end, upgraded from an earlier forecast of 1%.